Showing posts with label Counterinsurgency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Counterinsurgency. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Destroying the Ho Chi Minh Trail

Introduction

The thesis of this post is that, despite multiple aerial interdiction campaigns, the Ho Chi Minh Trail (HCMT) could not have been put out of commission without capturing the land on which it operated. This thesis is supported by the fact that extended aerial bombardment had only minimal operation on its operation, and by consideration of the structure of the HCMT's network of roads, footpaths, and streams.

After presenting the history of the HCMT as well as other supply routes the Communists used to move fighters and supplies into South Vietnam, the geography and meteorology upon which the HCMT operated will be examined. Next, the size and extent of the HCMT will be described as well as how the Communists used the trail. Next, the major interdiction operations targeting the HCMT will be described. This includes Operation Igloo White, an early example of an "Electronic Battlefield system," to use the terminology of Banner (1993). Finally, the resiliency of the HCMT will be addressed – why weren't the aerial interdictions and the millions of tons of ordnance dropped on the HCMT incapable of halting its operation?

A-6 Intruder drops ordnance over North Vietnam, from The National Naval Aviation Museum.

Background Information

The North Vietnamese Army (NVA) and the Vietcong (VC) operating in South Vietnam were supplied by China and the USSR through four routes:

  1. Across the DMZ between North Vietnam and South Vietnam
  2. By sea along the east coast of North and South Vietnam
  3. By sea to Cambodia, then overland to South Vietnam
  4. Through Laos into South Vietnam – this was the Ho Chi Minh Trail
Map from Encyclopedia Britannica.

The DMZ between North and South Vietnam was established in 1954 and was approximately 47 miles long. It was, by nature, forbidden. Delivery by sea to North and South Vietnam was halted by Operation Market Time in 1966. The Sihanouk Trail (the Cambodian route) was closed in 1970 when Prince Norodom Sihanouk was ousted and replaced by the US-friendly Lon Nol.

This left the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which became the primary target for interdiction operations.

The history of the HCMT extends back to the end of World War II and the First Indochina War (Hanyoc, 2002). The Vietminh needed an effective backwoods logistics system for this war, and this eventually became the bane of the anti-Communists.

In May 1959, the government of North Vietnam decided to launch a war of unification - the Second Indochina War, which later became the Vietnam War. During the planning process they established Transportation Group 559, tasked with upgrading and operating the HCMT. Group 559 employed approximately 100,000 people at any time, including, according to Banner (1993):

  • Engineers
  • Porters
  • Drivers
  • Mechanics
  • Laborers
  • Ground security units
  • Anti-aircraft units
  • Hospitals
  • Complete assortment of other administrative and logistical support units

Geographical and Meteorological Considerations

The border between South Vietnam and Laos runs for 300 miles, but only 125 miles was involved in the HMCT. Banner (1993) calls this the “Tchepone Corridor,” named after a Laotian town in the vicinity. The western half of the Tchepone Corridor is flat or rolling hills; the remainder, a 65 mile wide stretch, is part of the Chaine Annamitique mountain range, and this was the causeway of the HCMT.

The Tchepone Corridor was crossed by streams and rivers that mostly flow southwest to the Mekong River. Overcoming these waterways involved extensive bridging, but the waterways provided lateral movement and were used during the rainy seasons which limited road usage.

The HCMT was mostly located in a tropical rainforest, described as “almost impenetrable primeval forests.” Laos receives an average of 140 inches per year of rainfall, mostly between May and October. All-weather routes that were constructed later in the war permitted year-round use, but most of the conflict occurred during the dry season.

Banner (1993) describes the overall geography as “severe” but notes that once the NV “found ways of accomplishing their missions, the geographical traits of the area were an important asset to the North Vietnamese and an incredible hindrance to US interdiction efforts.”


Extent and Usage

As described above, the HCMT fits into a land area 65 miles long by 25 miles wide. The length of roads and trails that Group 559 built into that area was huge: 10,000 miles in total. In addition, thousands of kilometers of fuel pipeline were laid. In places where the tropical rainforest didn't provide cover, 1,800 miles of road were camouflaged.

The rate of construction increased as the Vietnam War continued: in 1965, 450 km/year of road was laid; by 1970 and 1971 this rate peaked to nearly 1000 km/year.

Supplies were moved along the HCMT in various means. Trucks were used over stretches that were paved. Carts and bicycles were also used. There are examples of Vietcong fighters crossing bridges by climbing underneath them to avoid being seen. Boats were used and were used more frequently during the rainy season.

The HCMT was used in three ways: north to south transportation, south to north movement, and as a rear area for the VC and NVA.

For north to south usage, the HCMT was primarily used to move personnel and ammunition into SV. The North Vietnamese claimed that 45 million tons of supplies were moved during the war. In 1969, 90% of all ammunition came through the HCMT and the Sihanouk Trail. The weapons were already in South Vietnam.

Besides ammunition, 26% of food and 27% of construction materials were transported into South Vietnam. Except for the ammunition, the Viet Cong were establishing a self-sustaining presence in South Vietnam.

These numbers vary by source: for example, the CIA estimated that between 1966 and 1971, 630,000 fighters were moved south, along with 100,000 tons of food, 50,000 tons of ammunition, and 400,000 weapons. (Hanyok, 2002, p.94)

For south to north movement, the HCMT was used to move injured personnel to first aid stations and hospitals. As it goes, some VNA and VC medical facilities were established within Laos, so injured fighters didn't need to be moved all the way to North Vietnam.

The HCMT was also used to transport personnel for training. Again, this doesn't imply that fighters needed to be moved to NV, since training facilities were established within Laos.

Families of fighters were moved north for their safety and to avoid being used as leverage.

Finally, captured documents were moved north for review by the North Vietnamese Army, the Chinese, and the Soviets.

In addition to being a transportation network, the HCMT was used as the rear area for the VC and the NVA. The variety of personnel employed by Group 559 allowed for command-and-control bases to be operated; maintenance and storage facilities were operated; training and recuperation areas were also maintained. The rear provided sanctuary for VC and NVA families. There was some limited farming in this area. Finally, the area was used to procure supplies from the local population.


Interdiction Operations

Because the HCMT was primarily located in Laos, that country became a primary target for American forces.

Conflict was already underway in northern Laos: the Laotian government was fighting Communist forces – the Pathet Lao. Neither the US nor the NV were permitted to have forces in Laos by the 1962 Geneva Accords. The US followed these Accords while NV left forces there. The Pathet Lao were thus supported by and operating at the behest of the North Vietnamese government. The war in Northern Laos thus became a proxy war inside another proxy war.

In southern Laos, no ground or aerial campaigns were allowed, again because of the 1962 Accords. Further complicating the situation was the US ambassador to Laos, William Sullivan. He was completely opposed to all military action in Laos, and this led to the HCMT being given the nickname "Sullivan's Freeway."

In both situations, the Americans needed to get "creative." They did this in two ways: first, the US would fly non-combat missions over Laos, gather intelligence, and pass that intel on to the Laotian Government or to South Vietnam forces; second, they would use covert actions, usually implemented by the CIA.

Operations intended to impede the use of the HCMT by the NVA and VC can be divided into two types: conventional bombing campaigns and "data driven" campaigns. Neither of these turned out to be effective.

Map from Staaveren, 1993, p. 99

There were four major conventional bombing operations that targeted the HCMT: Operations Rolling Thunder(March 1965 – October 1968), Barrel Roll(December 1964 – March 1973), Steel Tiger(April 1965 – November 1968), and Tiger Hound(December 1965 – November 1968). There were also unconventional operations called Operation Igloo White and Operation Commando Hunt that involved electronic warfare. These will be described shortly.

Operation Rolling Thunder targeted industrial infrastructure and military targets within NV, including the part of the HCMT within NV. Approximately 300,000 sorties were flown by USAF and USN aircraft, dropping approximately 643,000 tons of ordinance. Because it targeted NV itself, the risks of escalation by China and the USSR were high. Of the four operations listed here, this was the most costly in terms of aircraft and lives (Staaveren, 2002).

Operation Barrel Roll targeted Pathet Lao (the communist forces in Laos) as well as the HCMT in northeast Laos. It was conducted by the USAF, USN, and the CIA, in coordination with Laotian forces and Hmong guerrillas.

Operation Steel Tiger began in April 1965. This was an adjunct of Operation Rolling Thunder which began the previous month. It was limited to the parts of Laos west of NV, north of the DMZ and Tchepone. Operation Steel Tiger was later rolled-in to Operation Commando Hunt (see below). Approximately 3 million tons of bombs were dropped over the lifetime of the operation, including later phases.

Operation Tiger Hound was part of Steel Tiger and focused on interdiction in southeast Laos in support of US and SV ground operations. It involved precise air strikes smaller than Steel Tiger's broad air strikes.

Planning for all these operations included the goal of disrupting the HCMT, but in each case the outcome was limited (Staaveren, 1993). Reasons for this are addressed later.

What about defoliation operations? Operation Ranch Hand, which ran from 1962 - 1971, was the US Air Force’s effort to eliminate the forest canopy that concealed the insurgents by spraying Agent Orange and other defoliants. The focus of this operation was South Vietnam, but herbicidal warfare in Laos and Cambodia were prohibited. Why? The usual answer to that question is that defoliation operations were disallowed for the same reasons that air combat operations over those countries were prohibited. Given that Operation Rolling Thunder and the other campaigns were somehow deemed acceptable, it is not clear why Ranch Hand wasn't extended into Laos.


Operations Igloo White and Commando Hunt

All the conventional campaigns gathered intel for use by US and SV forces, but gathering intel wasn't the primary purpose of those operations. To overcome limited intelligence, the US established a large-scale sensor network called Igloo White and an integrated attack system based on this system called Commando Hunt.

These two operations were early examples of what Banner (1993) calls “Electronic Battlefield (EB) systems." This system was proposed by a think tank called the Jason Committee, which presented their design for a system consisting of the sensor network, aerial reconnaissance, and a constantly replenished mine belt. Secretary McNamara accepted the proposal, and the first sensors were dropped in Laos in December 1967. This operation would soon be called Igloo White.

The sensor network consisted of approximately 20,000 sensors dropped on known or suspected logistics sites. They recorded vibration, motion, sound, and sometimes smells. Overhead aircraft would collect the transmissions from these sensor packages and retransmit them to the Infiltration Surveillance Center (ISC) located at Nakhon Plano, Thailand. This data would be analyzed by computers with target information passed to air controllers or directly to attack aircraft.

 
Photo showing two Igloo White sensors, from Shields (1971).

The evolution of Igloo White from initial concept to final form is described in excruciating detail in (Staaveren, 1993, pp. 255 - 267). From an outsider's perspective, one must wonder if the personnel involved were paid on an hourly basis!

Data recorded by these sensors would be stored until requested by aircraft operating overhead, in "the cloud." This information would be analyzed and serve as the basis for highly targeted operations.

Illustration from Shields (1971) showing actionable information ISC computers produced from sensor data.

From a contemporary perspective, Igloo White and Commando Hunt were both strange and innovative.

Sensors, though not necessarily electronic, are commonly used by survivalists and preppers to detect the approach of undesirable people (enemies, rival preppers, etc.) The use of these sensors stops there – they inform the people who placed them of the need for defensive action. The end. With Igloo White and Commando Hunt, the sensors provided information that can then be used to hunt down the Communists travelling along the HCMT. From a survivalist perspective, this is an unfamiliar and strange way to use sensor information.

Igloo White and Commando Hunt were innovative in that they were an early example of the Internet of Things (IoT). With IoT one can create a network of one or more sensors that transmits data "into the cloud." This data is analyzed, and actionable information is produced.


Explaining the Interdiction Failures

Why did the aerial campaigns fail to completely disrupt the HCMT? It comes down to the structure of the HCMT.

The left side of this picture shows two simple examples of logistics networks – dots represent bases and lines represent trails.

At top left is a very simple tree that Kress (2016) would claim to be a model of a traditional military logistics system. On the bottom left is a very simplified model of the HCMT.

The right side shows the results of removing one line from these two networks. For the tree, removing any single line results in the network being disconnected. For the simplified HCMT model, removing a single line never results in disconnected components.

Now, the tree model used by Kress (2016) can not be considered a realistic model of a military logistics network. This was confirmed in a personal communication from Prof. James Lechner, who writes on 7 April 2025:

The root and tree branch metaphor is not a bad one but not the whole story. Some classes of supply - like ammunition can only come from very specific sources like an ammunition holding area at theater level. Others like food/water, gasoline, construction materials etc can be procured locally almost anywhere in the world. Based on availability (local v theater v strategic) the items are gathered at specific levels either Corps (brought in from theater or above) or brigade/battalion (local) then organized into means of transportation (convoy, airlift, etc.). The units on the ground then take charge of these convoys or parts of them when they come into their operational area and are responsible for distribution/delivery to the company and platoon level.

The point still holds, however: a logistics network like used in the HCMT is extremely hard to disrupt by removing lines. The situation is even worse when we consider removing a single dot (or base) from a tree. Except for the "leaves," removing a single base in the above tree will disconnect the tree into multiple components.

This is why the aerial campaigns failed: the HCMT was resilient by nature of its arrangement.


Conclusions

The importance of the HCMT extends beyond its logistic value to the North Vietnamese Army and the Vietcong: it was a model of a logistics system worthy of being studied and emulated by both conventional and irregular forces. Indeed,

The Ho Chi Minh Trail is one of the great achievements in military engineering of the twentieth century.

This money quote is taken from page 94 of Hanyok's 2002 report titled Spartans in Darkness: American SIG/NT and the Indochina War 1945-1975. Here, Hanyok was describing not only the extent of the HCMT but also the role it played in the Vietnamese communist war effort:

It took on an existence of its own and consumed the efforts of an enormous number of people to keep it running, especially in the face of the Allied air offensive determined to shut it down. Their effort was a success.

Banner (1993) dives extensively into plans for invading Laos as proposed in the post-war memoir of General Westmoreland and others, and he draws two conclusions: first, the invasion of Laos planned by Westmoreland would be extremely costly in terms of lives; second, the Vietcong had established a self-sufficient presence in South Vietnam. This second claim is only partially true, however, as the VC were still importing their ammunition using the HCMT.

There is another aspect that is not addressed, at least in the literature consulted here: it seems that the HCMT was not only a military logistics route but a civilian economic route, too. When paths or bases were destroyed by aerial bombardment, it made sense for those to be repaired both for civilian and military purposes. This made the HCMT even harder to disrupt, as it was necessary not to destroy it but rather to deny access to it by the Communists.

Given all this, it is not surprising that the HCMT survived the Vietnam War: not only was it designed to be a very resilient system, it was in the interest of both the military and the civilians to keep it running.


Bibliography

Banner, G. War for the Ho Chi Minh Trail. US Army Command and General Staff College, 1993. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA272827.pdf

Kress, M. Operational Logistics: The Art and Science of Sustaining Military Operations, 2nd Edition. Springer, 2016.

Hanyok, R. Spartans in Darkness: American SIGINT and the Indochina War, 1945 – 1975. Center for Cryptologic History, 2002. https://www.nsa.gov/portals/75/documents/news-features/declassified-documents/cryptologic-histories/spartans_in_darkness.pdf

Shields, H. IGLOO WHITE January 1970 – September 1971. HQ PACAF Directorate of Operations Analysis, 1 November 1971. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA485194.pdf

Staaveren, J, Interdiction in Southern Laos 1960 – 1968. Center for Air Force History, 1993. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA439950.pdf

Staaveren, J. Gradual Failure: The War Over North Vietnam 1965-1966. Air Force Historical Studies Office, 2002. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA440196.pdf

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa: Decomposition of Data Analysis

Introduction

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa[1] was a 2009 novella authored by Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert "Jim" Marckwardt explaining one way to conduct successful counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Iraq. Its narrative style was based on Ernest Swinton’s The Defense of Duffer’s Drift[2]: in both, the protagonist repeats the same scenario repeatedly, each time learning from the last. Through each evolution, the protagonist learns from his (sometimes) deadly mistakes, and by the end he succeeds in his mission.

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa was later converted into six computer animated videos by TRADOC. The goal of this paper is to perform a decomposition of data analysis of the events in the fifth video[3] of that series. The major actors will be described, as well as the actions they take. Then, the targets, objectives, and effects (results or consequences) will be analyzed. The implications of these actions for intelligence analysis are described. Finally, the lessons the protagonist learned in this evolution will be described.

Note: in an earlier post[4], the COIN operarions at al-Doreaa was examined using RAFT (Relationships, Actors, Functions, and Tensions) Analysis.

Actors and Initial Actions

2LT Phil Connors

The main actor is 2LT Phil Connors. He establishes a combat outpost (COP) in the Iraqi town called al-Doreaa with the goal of providing a base of operations for his men as well as providing security and other aid to the town. He obtains humanitarian aid (HA) packages for the townsfolk. He is aware of local customs and follows them, including greeting rituals, eating with the right hand, and not objecting to women wearing burkas.

Mayor Hussein

The town’s mayor, Mayor Hussein, describes the condition of al-Doreaa to 2LT Connors. He has three children: two daughters and one son. He tells Connors about his town's needs which includes medical services, stable electricity, and clean water. He is of the opinion that America’s promises have exceeded the results.

Mohammed the Interpreter

Mohammed, Connors’ interpreter, works with the American forces and interacts with the townsfolk. This puts him in potential danger, so Connors reviews steps he must take to maintain his safety.

Bill White from USAID

Bill White, who works for the USAID, travels with his team to the town to work on the water system. His team carries only rifles. He meets with Connors, but Connors did not know that USAID would be there. Connors believes the USAID team's defensives are insufficient for the town.

Insurgent Groups

There are insurgent groups in the area. For reasons explained below, they will be called Insurgents #1, #2, and #3.

Actions

During the initial meeting with Mayor Hussein, Connors provides some personal info about his life to build rapport. The mayor tells him of some of the town’s problems (no water, intermittent electricity, and no medical clinic). He also lets Connors know about his son’s health. Connors has a medic treat his son, stating that frequent follow-up care will be needed.

On the way back to the COP, Conners meets with Bill White and his USAID team. Connors asks if he has security. He says he has rifles but asks if Connors can provide security while he works on the town’s water system. Throwing shade (Connors thinks of them as “yahoos” and “cowboys or morons”), Connors says he cannot provide security, even though Mayor Hussein expressed the need for water. White protests, stating that he won’t be able to return for another month. Connors again refuses to provide security, and White and the rest of the USAID team drives off.

At the base, Connors believes that the meeting with the mayor went well, and one of his troops stated that the HA packages were popular with the townsfolk, who reciprocated with a little info on the insurgents. Mohammed alerts Connors to the mayor: if the mayor really is in charge, he can’t be trusted since he knows local insurgents. One of Connors’ soldiers, Specialist Wilson, reports that the south side of town is dangerous at night. He says this while sweeping the Americans and Muhammed with his rifle.

At this point, the COP comes under mortar attack from Insurgents #1. They request rotary wing support, and one of Connors’ soldiers is killed. Realizing that if his troops struck out blindly at the population, that would get the townsfolk to side with the insurgents. Connors meets with his sergeants and encourages them to act with restraint.

Connors pays a visit to the mayor the next morning. The mayor heard about the attack but didn’t know of the fatality. Connors asks if he knew who committed the attack. The mayor doesn’t know, but he states that some unemployed young men in town can be persuaded by outsiders. The mayor also provides info about the outsiders’ approximate location (house with a blue gate). He will not help Connors find the exact location because it will put him in danger.

On the way back to the COP, Connors confirms what the mayor says, but cannot narrow down the exact location, as there are three houses with blue gates. At the COP, Connors combines info from his other soldiers to determine the exact house from which Insurgents #2 operates.

Connors establishes an observation post (OP) close to that house to monitor activity. The OP reports five males are transferring items out of a car but cannot confirm that they are weapons. Connors and team raid the house. They kill at least two of the insurgents and capture at least two others. They also capture a weapons cache that includes a mortar.

For several weeks after the raid, no further attacks occurred. Connors arranged for a medical team to work at the town, and he provided the town with cases of bottled water. He also had weekly dinner with Mayor Hussein to plan future improvements.

Because there were no other attacks in al-Doreaa, Conners’ team was repositioned north. He met with the mayor to let him know they were leaving. Connors thought everything would be OK – he believed the insurgency had come to an end in that area.

Several days later, Connors saw a news report stating that al-Doreaa was seized by Insurgents #3. He didn’t believe this happened – the town had been free of insurgents when he departed. Insurgents #3 posted a video online showing them executing several individuals, including the mayor and (maybe) Mohammed the interpreter.

Connors thus arrives at the following lessons:

  1. Counterinsurgency requires unity of effort between the military, NGOs, the host nation, and other elements of national power.
  2. Established informants must be protected after Coalition forces leave.
  3. Operations must be transferred to local security forces and local government officials.

Finis.

Targets, Objectives, and Effects (Consequences) of the Acts

In dismissing the USAID personnel, Conners prevented the town from receiving reliable clean water for at least a month. He did this even though the mayor explicitly stated that this was something the town needed. Supplying the town with cases of bottled water was thus only a stop-gap measure. This also reinforces the mayor’s opinion that American forces were promising more than they were delivering.

By reminding his men not to take broad action in response to his man’s death, Connors avoided creating animosity with the townsfolk. This goodwill allowed him to pinpoint the location of Insurgents #2, and to capture or kill them and their weapons cache, rendering Insurgents #2 inoperative. Since several insurgents were captured alive, this would be an intelligence source that can be used. Finally, it alerted other insurgents that the town was secure, and that they should delay their actions until the Americans leave.

Insurgents #3 captured the town and executed several people including Mayor Hussein and (maybe) Mohammed the Interpreter. This instilled fear into the rest of the town – the lesson being that cooperation with Americans would lead to death. Insurgents #3 also posted video of these executions online. The effects of this were to instill fear in American sympathizers throughout Iraq, to act as a morale booster for other insurgents, and to recruit new insurgents from across the globe. Finally, it led to the demoralization of one 2LT Phil Connors.

Intelligence Implications

The insurgents appeared three times in this story: first, when the COP came under attack; second, when insurgents occupied a house and used it as a weapons cache; third, when the insurgents reentered the town and executed townsfolk who acted as informants or cooperated with the Americans.

It cannot be assumed that these were all the same insurgents. The mayor explicitly stated that outsiders were recruiting locals to work for them. Further, the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) cannot be the same as the ones who executed townsfolk (Insurgents #3), since they were either captured or killed in the raid. Finally, the insurgents who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1) may or may not be the same as the ones captured at the weapons house (Insurgents #2). A mortar was found at the house, along with several shells, so they may have been the same. Only information gathered from the captured insurgents as well as forensic examination of the weapons can determine if the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) were the same ones who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1).

Conclusion

The fifth evolution of The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa demonstrated the need for cooperation between the military, NGOs, and local government to successfully fight insurgents – and that one reason for a lack of cooperation is inter-agency rivalry. It also showed that when American forces leave an area, control must be transferred to local security and local government. In this fictitious example, local security apparently didn’t exist, and the mayor was truly not in charge, as demonstrated by his fear of helping the Americans. Thus, if local security or competent government don’t exist, they must be established before Americans leave the area. If not, then not only are the locals who work for Americans in danger, but also any progress the Americans make will be destroyed.


Footnotes

[1] Burgoyne & Marckwardt, The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa.
[2] Swinton, The Defense of Duffer’s Drift.
[3] TRADOC, “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.”
[4] Klepper, “Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis.”


Bibliography

Burgoyne, M. & Marckwardt, A. The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press, 2009.

Klepper, M. "Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis." The Other Side of History, 19 April 2024. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://the-other-side-of-history.blogspot.com/2024/04/jasr-al-doreaa-raft-analysis.html

Swinton, E. The Defense of Duffer’s Drift. U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Originally published 1906. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf

TRADOC. “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.” YouTube Video, 17:49. 9 May 2013. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYFB0zAcZl4

Friday, April 19, 2024

Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis

Introduction

In 1904 the British Army officer Ernest Swinton wrote a book titled The Defence of Duffer's Drift. Set during the Second Boer War, it is narrated by a freshly-minted lieutenant named N. Backsight Forethought (BF), who is tasked with holding Duffer's Drift, the only ford on the Silliassvogel River open to wheeled traffic. BF initially thought this to be a trivial problem, stating "now if they had given me a job, say like fighting the Battle of Waterloo, or Gettysburg, or Bull Run, I knew all about that, as I had crammed it up...". He fails at this trivial problem, at least at first.

The story is told in a series of six nightmares. In the first five, BF makes mistakes that result in the defeat and capture of his platoon by the Boers. At the end of each nightmare, he analyzes his mistakes and compiles a list of lessons learned. These lessons range from the obvious (defend your camp before allowing your men to rest, and do not allow stray people into your camp - they will give intel to the enemy) to the more sophisticated (a hill may not necessarily be the best place to hold). BF is able to carry these lessons into the next evolution. Finally, in the last nightmare, he is able to hold Duffer's Drift against Boer ambushes and attacks until relief arrives.

The Defence of Duffer's Drift has been used by both British and US forces, among others, as a way of teaching small unit tactics. This style of instruction has been used repeatedly ever since, and used to teach other topics such as mechanized warfare and cyber warfare.

To teach junior officers basic counter-insurgency principles for use in Iraq, US Army Captains Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert J. Marckwardt wrote a 2009 novella called The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa. As in the The Defence of Duffer's Drift, the narrator experiences six nightmares, learning as he goes along. These six nightmares were converted into six computer-animated videos by TRADOC.

This paper is concerned with the sixth and final TRADOC video. When viewing it from the proported counter-insurgency lessons learned, one can only say "now do it for Afghanistan." Instead, the video will be considered from the standpoint of a military intelligence analyst, and a RAFT analysis will be performed on the ficticous Iraqi town of Jasr Al Doreaa and the Iraqi military, insurgents, and civilians present there.

Introduction to RAFT Analysis

RAFT Analysis is an analytic tool used to quickly identify key players, their functions, and the relations and tensions between the actors. The acronym stands for:

  • R = Relationships – connections between key players
  • A = Actors – key players
  • F = Functions – what do the actors do, what are their capabilities?
  • T = Tensions – conflicts between actors

Actors are the key players, and these actors have functions – what do they do, and what can they do? Relationships are about how are actors connected. This can be through military command structure, friendships, familial relations, etc. Tensions are the conflicts between the actors.

It makes sense to start with the actors.

Actors

2LT Phil Connors

  • Platoon leader in charge of defending the town, and establishes a base
  • Familiar with local tribes and customs but not the language
  • Believes in "hearts and minds" approach to fighting insurgents:
    • Security achieved through gaining trust and confidence of locals
    • Separate insurgents from population
    • End the day with fewer insurgents
  • Is quoted as saying "make no enemies" - take that as you will.

After Connors establishes his base, it comes under attack. This attack has three prongs: a mortar attack, a VBIED, and a direct assault by a 6-man team. Analysis of the VBIED shows that it originated in Syria. All people who initiated the mortar attack were killed. Of the 6 men who assaulted the base, 5 were killed, leaving only a man named Mohammed Jabori.

Mohammed Jabori

  • Part of a 6-man team that assaulted Connor's base
  • Rest of his team was killed
  • Was armed with AK-47 when captured
  • Local to the town of Jasr Al Doreaa
  • Works for local Al-Qaeda leader, Kaseem Fareem
  • One of his captors says "this guy is just a kid" - a kid with a mustache and a 5-o'clock shadow

Following the attack, Connors decides to go into Jasr Al Doreaa and meet with the locals. In this, he is assisted by LT Habir of the Iraqi Security Forces.

LT Habir

  • Commander of local Iraqi forces
  • Works with Connors when meeting with locals
  • Cooperates with Connors in capturing the local Al-Qaeda leader
  • Speaks both English and local language

While in town, Connors and Habir meet LT Habir's cousin, Ahmed, and they all go to Ahmed's house for tea or something.

Cousin Ahmed

  • Cousin of LT Habir
  • Friend of the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
  • Can identify local Al-Qaeda members including leaders
  • Key player because of his relationships and local knowledge

Once at Cousin Ahmed's house, the town mayor pays a visit. This is apparently an unscheduled meeting.

Mayor Hussein

  • Mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
  • Embittered because of 4 years of unkept US promises
  • Afraid of reprisal for working with Americans
  • Cares about his town and relates the needs of his town to Connors and Habir:
    • Medical support - town has no doctors
    • Town needs security

During interrogation, Mohammed Jabori states that he works for the leader of the local Al-Qaeda. He gives a name, Kassim Fareed, but not how to find him. Cousin Ahmed helps out with this.

Kassim Fareed

  • Leader of local Al-Qaeda
  • Lived near Sunni mosque with bodyguards
  • Moved into town 2 weeks ago, killing several villagers
  • Considered to be a high value target
  • Captured by Connors and Habir along with 3 security guards

Kassim Fareed was captured along with three other people. It was Cousin Ahmed who identified him. Along with the four insurgents, the capturing force finds weapons and IED-making equipment.

Relationships

The best way to examine relationships is through diagrams that look like this...

This diagram shows the key actors and the relationships between them. On the bottom corner is Connors; he works with LT Habir and with Cousin Ahmed using a interpreter named Mohammed. Ahmed and Habir are cousins. Ahmed and the Mayor are related in some way - friends? We don't know the details. Maybe this means Cousin Ahmed is what used to be called a "leading citizen."

Cousin Ahmed can identify members of the local Al-Qaeda insurgents including Kassim Fareed. Fareed works with Al-Qaeda. Either Fareed or some other member of the Al-Qaeda has threatened the Mayor.

Notice that Cousin Ahmed is related to the most other people in this diagram. This "centrality" implies that he has "influence" or at least knowledge of the key players. This is the type of information that can only be revealed with RAFT analysis.

With the available information we can diagram the local Al-Qaeda group...

Near the bottom is Muhammed Jabori who was captured in a raid on Connor's base. During interrogation he reveals that his manager in Al-Qauea is Kassim Fareem. He doesn't know how to locate him, however. Fareem is captured along with three of his security guards. A very valuable piece of information would be the name of Fareem's leader.

Note: we are assuming that Al-Qaeda is indeed a hierarchial organization.

Functions

Functions are the capabilities of the key actors: what they do and what can they do.

2LT Phil Connors is a prime mover (at least militarily) - he gets things done! He works well with his commander and the Iraqi Security Forces. He anticipates the town's security and medical needs, and gets police and medical training for them.

Connors is so proficient at getting things done that he almost has a superpower: he operates without von Clausewitz's "friction!"

Kassim Fareed commanded other insurgents. He possessed sufficient pull to get weapons and IED-making equipment. This means he probably supplied other insurgents with weapons and IEDs.

He might be the one who threatened Mayor Hussein for working with Americans.

Fareed's capture throws the local Al-Qaeda into disarray, at least in the short term.

Finally, Cousin Ahmed functions as the "glue" to the whole situation. He can identify key actors and form relationships with them. He's on good terms with Mayor Hussein and local Iraqi forces. He can at least identify local insurgency memvbers such as Kassim Fareed.

Tensions

The ultimate tension is between Coalition and Insurgent forces, but we care about tensions between the key actors. The major tension is between the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa and the insurgents.

Mayor Hussein feels threatened by the local Al-Qaeda for working with Americans. He doubts the ability of Iraqi forces to defend the town. Connor's commander has a similar view of Iraqi forces. The mayor is apprehensive of the town's security once the American forces leaves.

Intelligence Sources, Gaps, and Goals

The available intelligence sources include:

  • Captured Al-Qaeda members
  • Families, friends, and acquaintances of captured and killed Al-Qaeda members
  • Info from townsfolk, especially from Cousin Ahmed
  • Physical evidence from Kassim Fareed's house
  • Physical evidence from the VBIED that exploded earlier

There are several intelligence gaps, information that would be useful to have:

  • Who is Kassim Fareed's leader?
  • Are Mayor Hussain, Cousin Ahmed, and the interpreters loyal?
    • Are they playing both sides against each other?
  • About the Mayor:
    • How was he threatened? By whom?
    • Did apprehension level go down after Kassim Fareed was captured?
  • About Cousin Ahmed:
    • Who else does he know?
    • How did he get to know all these people?
    • What is the overall quality of information he can provide?

Conclusion - Next Steps

  • Fill-in the intel gaps by:
    • Gather and analyze additional physical evidence
    • Continue getting intelligence from captured insurgents and family members
  • Identify other insurgents
  • About Cousin Ahmed:
    • Use as information source about locals and insurgents
    • Monitor his actions and contacts
  • Follow-up on Syria connection from earlier VBIED explosion
  • Look for changes in behavior of the locals following Kaseem Fareem's capture
  • Derive actionable info and pass to Connors to execute

References

Burgoyne, M., Marckwardt, A., & Nagl, J. (2009). The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/jisaldoreaa.pdf

Swinton, E. D. (1904). The Defense of Duffer's Drift. Praetorian Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf

TRADOC G2 OE Enterprise G&V. (2013). The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa - Dream 6. Retrieved 3 April 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vHvae5BZRo