Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa: Decomposition of Data Analysis

Introduction

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa[1] was a 2009 novella authored by Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert "Jim" Marckwardt explaining one way to conduct successful counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Iraq. Its narrative style was based on Ernest Swinton’s The Defense of Duffer’s Drift[2]: in both, the protagonist repeats the same scenario repeatedly, each time learning from the last. Through each evolution, the protagonist learns from his (sometimes) deadly mistakes, and by the end he succeeds in his mission.

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa was later converted into six computer animated videos by TRADOC. The goal of this paper is to perform a decomposition of data analysis of the events in the fifth video[3] of that series. The major actors will be described, as well as the actions they take. Then, the targets, objectives, and effects (results or consequences) will be analyzed. The implications of these actions for intelligence analysis are described. Finally, the lessons the protagonist learned in this evolution will be described.

Note: in an earlier post[4], the COIN operarions at al-Doreaa was examined using RAFT (Relationships, Actors, Functions, and Tensions) Analysis.

Actors and Initial Actions

2LT Phil Connors

The main actor is 2LT Phil Connors. He establishes a combat outpost (COP) in the Iraqi town called al-Doreaa with the goal of providing a base of operations for his men as well as providing security and other aid to the town. He obtains humanitarian aid (HA) packages for the townsfolk. He is aware of local customs and follows them, including greeting rituals, eating with the right hand, and not objecting to women wearing burkas.

Mayor Hussein

The town’s mayor, Mayor Hussein, describes the condition of al-Doreaa to 2LT Connors. He has three children: two daughters and one son. He tells Connors about his town's needs which includes medical services, stable electricity, and clean water. He is of the opinion that America’s promises have exceeded the results.

Mohammed the Interpreter

Mohammed, Connors’ interpreter, works with the American forces and interacts with the townsfolk. This puts him in potential danger, so Connors reviews steps he must take to maintain his safety.

Bill White from USAID

Bill White, who works for the USAID, travels with his team to the town to work on the water system. His team carries only rifles. He meets with Connors, but Connors did not know that USAID would be there. Connors believes the USAID team's defensives are insufficient for the town.

Insurgent Groups

There are insurgent groups in the area. For reasons explained below, they will be called Insurgents #1, #2, and #3.

Actions

During the initial meeting with Mayor Hussein, Connors provides some personal info about his life to build rapport. The mayor tells him of some of the town’s problems (no water, intermittent electricity, and no medical clinic). He also lets Connors know about his son’s health. Connors has a medic treat his son, stating that frequent follow-up care will be needed.

On the way back to the COP, Conners meets with Bill White and his USAID team. Connors asks if he has security. He says he has rifles but asks if Connors can provide security while he works on the town’s water system. Throwing shade (Connors thinks of them as “yahoos” and “cowboys or morons”), Connors says he cannot provide security, even though Mayor Hussein expressed the need for water. White protests, stating that he won’t be able to return for another month. Connors again refuses to provide security, and White and the rest of the USAID team drives off.

At the base, Connors believes that the meeting with the mayor went well, and one of his troops stated that the HA packages were popular with the townsfolk, who reciprocated with a little info on the insurgents. Mohammed alerts Connors to the mayor: if the mayor really is in charge, he can’t be trusted since he knows local insurgents. One of Connors’ soldiers, Specialist Wilson, reports that the south side of town is dangerous at night. He says this while sweeping the Americans and Muhammed with his rifle.

At this point, the COP comes under mortar attack from Insurgents #1. They request rotary wing support, and one of Connors’ soldiers is killed. Realizing that if his troops struck out blindly at the population, that would get the townsfolk to side with the insurgents. Connors meets with his sergeants and encourages them to act with restraint.

Connors pays a visit to the mayor the next morning. The mayor heard about the attack but didn’t know of the fatality. Connors asks if he knew who committed the attack. The mayor doesn’t know, but he states that some unemployed young men in town can be persuaded by outsiders. The mayor also provides info about the outsiders’ approximate location (house with a blue gate). He will not help Connors find the exact location because it will put him in danger.

On the way back to the COP, Connors confirms what the mayor says, but cannot narrow down the exact location, as there are three houses with blue gates. At the COP, Connors combines info from his other soldiers to determine the exact house from which Insurgents #2 operates.

Connors establishes an observation post (OP) close to that house to monitor activity. The OP reports five males are transferring items out of a car but cannot confirm that they are weapons. Connors and team raid the house. They kill at least two of the insurgents and capture at least two others. They also capture a weapons cache that includes a mortar.

For several weeks after the raid, no further attacks occurred. Connors arranged for a medical team to work at the town, and he provided the town with cases of bottled water. He also had weekly dinner with Mayor Hussein to plan future improvements.

Because there were no other attacks in al-Doreaa, Conners’ team was repositioned north. He met with the mayor to let him know they were leaving. Connors thought everything would be OK – he believed the insurgency had come to an end in that area.

Several days later, Connors saw a news report stating that al-Doreaa was seized by Insurgents #3. He didn’t believe this happened – the town had been free of insurgents when he departed. Insurgents #3 posted a video online showing them executing several individuals, including the mayor and (maybe) Mohammed the interpreter.

Connors thus arrives at the following lessons:

1. Counterinsurgency requires unity of effort between the military, NGOs, the host nation, and other elements of national power.
2. Established informants must be protected after Coalition forces leave.
3. Operations must be transferred to local security forces and local government officials.

Finis.

Targets, Objectives, and Effects (Consequences) of the Acts

In dismissing the USAID personnel, Conners prevented the town from receiving reliable clean water for at least a month. He did this even though the mayor explicitly stated that this was something the town needed. Supplying the town with cases of bottled water was thus only a stop-gap measure. This also reinforces the mayor’s opinion that American forces were promising more than they were delivering.

By reminding his men not to take broad action in response to his man’s death, Connors avoided creating animosity with the townsfolk. This goodwill allowed him to pinpoint the location of Insurgents #2, and to capture or kill them and their weapons cache, rendering Insurgents #2 inoperative. Since several insurgents were captured alive, this would be an intelligence source that can be used. Finally, it alerted other insurgents that the town was secure, and that they should delay their actions until the Americans leave.

Insurgents #3 captured the town and executed several people including Mayor Hussein and (maybe) Mohammed the Interpreter. This instilled fear into the rest of the town – the lesson being that cooperation with Americans would lead to death. Insurgents #3 also posted video of these executions online. The effects of this were to instill fear in American sympathizers throughout Iraq, to act as a morale booster for other insurgents, and to recruit new insurgents from across the globe. Finally, it led to the demoralization of one 2LT Phil Connors.

Intelligence Implications

The insurgents appeared three times in this story: first, when the COP came under attack; second, when insurgents occupied a house and used it as a weapons cache; third, when the insurgents reentered the town and executed townsfolk who acted as informants or cooperated with the Americans.

It cannot be assumed that these were all the same insurgents. The mayor explicitly stated that outsiders were recruiting locals to work for them. Further, the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) cannot be the same as the ones who executed townsfolk (Insurgents #3), since they were either captured or killed in the raid. Finally, the insurgents who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1) may or may not be the same as the ones captured at the weapons house (Insurgents #2). A mortar was found at the house, along with several shells, so they may have been the same. Only information gathered from the captured insurgents as well as forensic examination of the weapons can determine if the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) were the same ones who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1).

Conclusion

The fifth evolution of The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa demonstrated the need for cooperation between the military, NGOs, and local government to successfully fight insurgents – and that one reason for a lack of cooperation is inter-agency rivalry. It also showed that when American forces leave an area, control must be transferred to local security and local government. In this fictitious example, local security apparently didn’t exist, and the mayor was truly not in charge, as demonstrated by his fear of helping the Americans. Thus, if local security or competent government don’t exist, they must be established before Americans leave the area. If not, then not only are the locals who work for Americans in danger, but also any progress the Americans make will be destroyed.

Footnotes

[1] Burgoyne & Marckwardt, The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa.
[2] Swinton, The Defense of Duffer’s Drift..
[3] TRADOC, “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.”
[4] Klepper, “Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis.”

Bibliography

Burgoyne, M. & Marckwardt, A. The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press, 2009.

Klepper, M. "Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis." The Other Side of History, 19 April 2024. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://the-other-side-of-history.blogspot.com/2024/04/jasr-al-doreaa-raft-analysis.html

Swinton, E. The Defense of Duffer’s Drift. U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Originally published 1906. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf

TRADOC. “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.” YouTube Video, 17:49. 9 May 2013. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYFB0zAcZl4