Introduction
In 1904 the British Army officer Ernest Swinton wrote a book titled The Defence of Duffer's Drift. Set during the Second Boer War, it is narrated by a freshly-minted lieutenant named N. Backsight Forethought (BF), who is tasked with holding Duffer's Drift, the only ford on the Silliassvogel River open to wheeled traffic. BF initially thought this to be a trivial problem, stating "now if they had given me a job, say like fighting the Battle of Waterloo, or Gettysburg, or Bull Run, I knew all about that, as I had crammed it up...". He fails at this trivial problem, at least at first.
The story is told in a series of six nightmares. In the first five, BF makes mistakes that result in the defeat and capture of his platoon by the Boers. At the end of each nightmare, he analyzes his mistakes and compiles a list of lessons learned. These lessons range from the obvious (defend your camp before allowing your men to rest, and do not allow stray people into your camp - they will give intel to the enemy) to the more sophisticated (a hill may not necessarily be the best place to hold). BF is able to carry these lessons into the next evolution. Finally, in the last nightmare, he is able to hold Duffer's Drift against Boer ambushes and attacks until relief arrives.
The Defence of Duffer's Drift has been used by both British and US forces, among others, as a way of teaching small unit tactics. This style of instruction has been used repeatedly ever since, and used to teach other topics such as mechanized warfare and cyber warfare.
To teach junior officers basic counter-insurgency principles for use in Iraq, US Army Captains Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert J. Marckwardt wrote a 2009 novella called The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa. As in the The Defence of Duffer's Drift, the narrator experiences six nightmares, learning as he goes along. These six nightmares were converted into six computer-animated videos by TRADOC.
This paper is concerned with the sixth and final TRADOC video. When viewing it from the proported counter-insurgency lessons learned, one can only say "now do it for Afghanistan." Instead, the video will be considered from the standpoint of a military intelligence analyst, and a RAFT analysis will be performed on the ficticous Iraqi town of Jasr Al Doreaa and the Iraqi military, insurgents, and civilians present there.
Introduction to RAFT Analysis
RAFT Analysis is an analytic tool used to quickly identify key players, their functions, and the relations and tensions between the actors. The acronym stands for:
- R = Relationships – connections between key players
- A = Actors – key players
- F = Functions – what do the actors do, what are their capabilities?
- T = Tensions – conflicts between actors
Actors are the key players, and these actors have functions – what do they do, and what can they do? Relationships are about how are actors connected. This can be through military command structure, friendships, familial relations, etc. Tensions are the conflicts between the actors.
It makes sense to start with the actors.
Actors
2LT Phil Connors
- Platoon leader in charge of defending the town, and establishes a base
- Familiar with local tribes and customs but not the language
- Believes in "hearts and minds" approach to fighting insurgents:
- Security achieved through gaining trust and confidence of locals
- Separate insurgents from population
- End the day with fewer insurgents
- Is quoted as saying "make no enemies" - take that as you will.
After Connors establishes his base, it comes under attack. This attack has three prongs: a mortar attack, a VBIED, and a direct assault by a 6-man team. Analysis of the VBIED shows that it originated in Syria. All people who initiated the mortar attack were killed. Of the 6 men who assaulted the base, 5 were killed, leaving only a man named Mohammed Jabori.
Mohammed Jabori
- Part of a 6-man team that assaulted Connor's base
- Rest of his team was killed
- Was armed with AK-47 when captured
- Local to the town of Jasr Al Doreaa
- Works for local Al-Qaeda leader, Kaseem Fareem
- One of his captors says "this guy is just a kid" - a kid with a mustache and a 5-o'clock shadow
Following the attack, Connors decides to go into Jasr Al Doreaa and meet with the locals. In this, he is assisted by LT Habir of the Iraqi Security Forces.
LT Habir
- Commander of local Iraqi forces
- Works with Connors when meeting with locals
- Cooperates with Connors in capturing the local Al-Qaeda leader
- Speaks both English and local language
While in town, Connors and Habir meet LT Habir's cousin, Ahmed, and they all go to Ahmed's house for tea or something.
Cousin Ahmed
- Cousin of LT Habir
- Friend of the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
- Can identify local Al-Qaeda members including leaders
- Key player because of his relationships and local knowledge
Once at Cousin Ahmed's house, the town mayor pays a visit. This is apparently an unscheduled meeting.
Mayor Hussein
- Mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
- Embittered because of 4 years of unkept US promises
- Afraid of reprisal for working with Americans
- Cares about his town and relates the needs of his town to Connors and Habir:
- Medical support - town has no doctors
- Town needs security
During interrogation, Mohammed Jabori states that he works for the leader of the local Al-Qaeda. He gives a name, Kassim Fareed, but not how to find him. Cousin Ahmed helps out with this.
Kassim Fareed
- Leader of local Al-Qaeda
- Lived near Sunni mosque with bodyguards
- Moved into town 2 weeks ago, killing several villagers
- Considered to be a high value target
- Captured by Connors and Habir along with 3 security guards
Kassim Fareed was captured along with three other people. It was Cousin Ahmed who identified him. Along with the four insurgents, the capturing force finds weapons and IED-making equipment.
Relationships
The best way to examine relationships is through diagrams that look like this...
This diagram shows the key actors and the relationships between them. On the bottom corner is Connors; he works with LT Habir and with Cousin Ahmed using a interpreter named Mohammed. Ahmed and Habir are cousins. Ahmed and the Mayor are related in some way - friends? We don't know the details. Maybe this means Cousin Ahmed is what used to be called a "leading citizen."
Cousin Ahmed can identify members of the local Al-Qaeda insurgents including Kassim Fareed. Fareed works with Al-Qaeda. Either Fareed or some other member of the Al-Qaeda has threatened the Mayor.
Notice that Cousin Ahmed is related to the most other people in this diagram. This "centrality" implies that he has "influence" or at least knowledge of the key players. This is the type of information that can only be revealed with RAFT analysis.
With the available information we can diagram the local Al-Qaeda group...
Near the bottom is Muhammed Jabori who was captured in a raid on Connor's base. During interrogation he reveals that his manager in Al-Qauea is Kassim Fareem. He doesn't know how to locate him, however. Fareem is captured along with three of his security guards. A very valuable piece of information would be the name of Fareem's leader.
Note: we are assuming that Al-Qaeda is indeed a hierarchial organization.
Functions
Functions are the capabilities of the key actors: what they do and what can they do.
2LT Phil Connors is a prime mover (at least militarily) - he gets things done! He works well with his commander and the Iraqi Security Forces. He anticipates the town's security and medical needs, and gets police and medical training for them.
Connors is so proficient at getting things done that he almost has a superpower: he operates without von Clausewitz's "friction!"
Kassim Fareed commanded other insurgents. He possessed sufficient pull to get weapons and IED-making equipment. This means he probably supplied other insurgents with weapons and IEDs.
He might be the one who threatened Mayor Hussein for working with Americans.
Fareed's capture throws the local Al-Qaeda into disarray, at least in the short term.
Finally, Cousin Ahmed functions as the "glue" to the whole situation. He can identify key actors and form relationships with them. He's on good terms with Mayor Hussein and local Iraqi forces. He can at least identify local insurgency memvbers such as Kassim Fareed.
Tensions
The ultimate tension is between Coalition and Insurgent forces, but we care about tensions between the key actors. The major tension is between the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa and the insurgents.
Mayor Hussein feels threatened by the local Al-Qaeda for working with Americans. He doubts the ability of Iraqi forces to defend the town. Connor's commander has a similar view of Iraqi forces. The mayor is apprehensive of the town's security once the American forces leaves.
Intelligence Sources, Gaps, and Goals
The available intelligence sources include:
- Captured Al-Qaeda members
- Families, friends, and acquaintances of captured and killed Al-Qaeda members
- Info from townsfolk, especially from Cousin Ahmed
- Physical evidence from Kassim Fareed's house
- Physical evidence from the VBIED that exploded earlier
There are several intelligence gaps, information that would be useful to have:
- Who is Kassim Fareed's leader?
- Are Mayor Hussain, Cousin Ahmed, and the interpreters loyal?
- Are they playing both sides against each other?
- About the Mayor:
- How was he threatened? By whom?
- Did apprehension level go down after Kassim Fareed was captured?
- About Cousin Ahmed:
- Who else does he know?
- How did he get to know all these people?
- What is the overall quality of information he can provide?
Conclusion - Next Steps
- Fill-in the intel gaps by:
- Gather and analyze additional physical evidence
- Continue getting intelligence from captured insurgents and family members
- Identify other insurgents
- About Cousin Ahmed:
- Use as information source about locals and insurgents
- Monitor his actions and contacts
- Follow-up on Syria connection from earlier VBIED explosion
- Look for changes in behavior of the locals following Kaseem Fareem's capture
- Derive actionable info and pass to Connors to execute
References
Burgoyne, M., Marckwardt, A., & Nagl, J. (2009). The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/jisaldoreaa.pdf
Swinton, E. D. (1904). The Defense of Duffer's Drift. Praetorian Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf
TRADOC G2 OE Enterprise G&V. (2013). The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa - Dream 6. Retrieved 3 April 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vHvae5BZRo
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