Based on publications by Engstrom[1], Work[2], as well as Cozad et al[3], the concept of systems warfare, or system of systems warfare, or “systems confrontation” has caught the eye of Chinese military theoreticians. The systems in question are human-machine collaborative networks for command, firepower, information systems, reconnaissance, and supply systems[4]. These are used to achieve integrated joint operations[5], and victory is defined by the destruction of the enemy’s systems – the enemy “loses the will and ability to resist” once the operational systems are rendered nonfunctional[6]. China expects this to work not only for peer rivals but also will allow them to "win informationized local wars."[7]
How should the U.S. military’s logistics system adapt to all this? After presenting an example scenario set in the Taiwan Strait in 2034, Estevez, et al[8], provides several recommendations.
First, the U.S. should develop resilient supply chains by avoiding single points of failure, using redundant suppliers, routes, and transport modes. Linear supply chains must be abandoned as they are too easy a target for kinetic strikes or cyber sabotage.
Second, the military should coordinate with the military-industrial base to ensure needs are rapidly met. This would involve transparency into the suppliers’ business processes to allow tracking from component part acquisition to final assembly.
Third, AI and predictive analytics along with traditional measurements should be used to forecast and meet demands.
Fourth, "gig" transportation systems like DoorDash or Lyft should be used to deliver goods into the theater of operations.
Implementation of this fourth recommendation has been studied in joint experiments by US and UK military forces[9]. They have produced small drones and self-driving supply trucks that would be needed, but the scheduling and notification systems required to produce a "military DoorDash" were not mentioned in their demonstration.
Estevez, et al[10], provides a picture of what warfare would look like in the era of systems warfare: deterrence would be achieved out of respect for these systems (not fear of death or destruction), and defeat would be achieved by protracted exhaustion instead of decisive action.
Footnotes
[1] Engstrom, 2018.
[2] Work, 2020.
[3] Cozad et al, 2023.
[4] Engstrom, p. 25.
[5] Ibid, p. 13.
[6] Ibid., p. 15.
[7] Ibid, p. 11.
[8] Estevez et al, 2021.
[9] Dstl, 2019.
[10] Estevez et al, 2021.
Bibliography
Cozad, M. et al. Gaining Victory in Systems Warfare. RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA1500/RRA1535-1/RAND_RRA1535-1.pdf
Dstl. “The Future of Military Logistics | Coalition Assured Autonomous Resupply,” posted 19 September 2019, YouTube, 2 min. 17 sec., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YqJUJby0wg
Engstrom, J. Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare. RAND Corporation, 2018. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1700/RR1708/RAND_RR1708.pdf
Estevez, A., Marchese, K., Routh, A., & Mariani, J. “The Changing Character of Supply: Rethinking Logistics in an Era of Systems Warfare.” Modern War Institute at West Point, 9 June 2021. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-changing-character-of-supply-rethinking-logistics-in-an-era-of-systems-warfare/
Work, R. “A Joint Warfighting Concept for Systems Warfare.” Center for a New American Security, 17 December 2020. https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/a-joint-warfighting-concept-for-systems-warfare
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