Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa: Decomposition of Data Analysis

Introduction

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa[1] was a 2009 novella authored by Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert "Jim" Marckwardt explaining one way to conduct successful counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Iraq. Its narrative style was based on Ernest Swinton’s The Defense of Duffer’s Drift[2]: in both, the protagonist repeats the same scenario repeatedly, each time learning from the last. Through each evolution, the protagonist learns from his (sometimes) deadly mistakes, and by the end he succeeds in his mission.

The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa was later converted into six computer animated videos by TRADOC. The goal of this paper is to perform a decomposition of data analysis of the events in the fifth video[3] of that series. The major actors will be described, as well as the actions they take. Then, the targets, objectives, and effects (results or consequences) will be analyzed. The implications of these actions for intelligence analysis are described. Finally, the lessons the protagonist learned in this evolution will be described.

Note: in an earlier post[4], the COIN operarions at al-Doreaa was examined using RAFT (Relationships, Actors, Functions, and Tensions) Analysis.

Actors and Initial Actions

2LT Phil Connors

The main actor is 2LT Phil Connors. He establishes a combat outpost (COP) in the Iraqi town called al-Doreaa with the goal of providing a base of operations for his men as well as providing security and other aid to the town. He obtains humanitarian aid (HA) packages for the townsfolk. He is aware of local customs and follows them, including greeting rituals, eating with the right hand, and not objecting to women wearing burkas.

Mayor Hussein

The town’s mayor, Mayor Hussein, describes the condition of al-Doreaa to 2LT Connors. He has three children: two daughters and one son. He tells Connors about his town's needs which includes medical services, stable electricity, and clean water. He is of the opinion that America’s promises have exceeded the results.

Mohammed the Interpreter

Mohammed, Connors’ interpreter, works with the American forces and interacts with the townsfolk. This puts him in potential danger, so Connors reviews steps he must take to maintain his safety.

Bill White from USAID

Bill White, who works for the USAID, travels with his team to the town to work on the water system. His team carries only rifles. He meets with Connors, but Connors did not know that USAID would be there. Connors believes the USAID team's defensives are insufficient for the town.

Insurgent Groups

There are insurgent groups in the area. For reasons explained below, they will be called Insurgents #1, #2, and #3.

Actions

During the initial meeting with Mayor Hussein, Connors provides some personal info about his life to build rapport. The mayor tells him of some of the town’s problems (no water, intermittent electricity, and no medical clinic). He also lets Connors know about his son’s health. Connors has a medic treat his son, stating that frequent follow-up care will be needed.

On the way back to the COP, Conners meets with Bill White and his USAID team. Connors asks if he has security. He says he has rifles but asks if Connors can provide security while he works on the town’s water system. Throwing shade (Connors thinks of them as “yahoos” and “cowboys or morons”), Connors says he cannot provide security, even though Mayor Hussein expressed the need for water. White protests, stating that he won’t be able to return for another month. Connors again refuses to provide security, and White and the rest of the USAID team drives off.

At the base, Connors believes that the meeting with the mayor went well, and one of his troops stated that the HA packages were popular with the townsfolk, who reciprocated with a little info on the insurgents. Mohammed alerts Connors to the mayor: if the mayor really is in charge, he can’t be trusted since he knows local insurgents. One of Connors’ soldiers, Specialist Wilson, reports that the south side of town is dangerous at night. He says this while sweeping the Americans and Muhammed with his rifle.

At this point, the COP comes under mortar attack from Insurgents #1. They request rotary wing support, and one of Connors’ soldiers is killed. Realizing that if his troops struck out blindly at the population, that would get the townsfolk to side with the insurgents. Connors meets with his sergeants and encourages them to act with restraint.

Connors pays a visit to the mayor the next morning. The mayor heard about the attack but didn’t know of the fatality. Connors asks if he knew who committed the attack. The mayor doesn’t know, but he states that some unemployed young men in town can be persuaded by outsiders. The mayor also provides info about the outsiders’ approximate location (house with a blue gate). He will not help Connors find the exact location because it will put him in danger.

On the way back to the COP, Connors confirms what the mayor says, but cannot narrow down the exact location, as there are three houses with blue gates. At the COP, Connors combines info from his other soldiers to determine the exact house from which Insurgents #2 operates.

Connors establishes an observation post (OP) close to that house to monitor activity. The OP reports five males are transferring items out of a car but cannot confirm that they are weapons. Connors and team raid the house. They kill at least two of the insurgents and capture at least two others. They also capture a weapons cache that includes a mortar.

For several weeks after the raid, no further attacks occurred. Connors arranged for a medical team to work at the town, and he provided the town with cases of bottled water. He also had weekly dinner with Mayor Hussein to plan future improvements.

Because there were no other attacks in al-Doreaa, Conners’ team was repositioned north. He met with the mayor to let him know they were leaving. Connors thought everything would be OK – he believed the insurgency had come to an end in that area.

Several days later, Connors saw a news report stating that al-Doreaa was seized by Insurgents #3. He didn’t believe this happened – the town had been free of insurgents when he departed. Insurgents #3 posted a video online showing them executing several individuals, including the mayor and (maybe) Mohammed the interpreter.

Connors thus arrives at the following lessons:

1. Counterinsurgency requires unity of effort between the military, NGOs, the host nation, and other elements of national power.
2. Established informants must be protected after Coalition forces leave.
3. Operations must be transferred to local security forces and local government officials.

Finis.

Targets, Objectives, and Effects (Consequences) of the Acts

In dismissing the USAID personnel, Conners prevented the town from receiving reliable clean water for at least a month. He did this even though the mayor explicitly stated that this was something the town needed. Supplying the town with cases of bottled water was thus only a stop-gap measure. This also reinforces the mayor’s opinion that American forces were promising more than they were delivering.

By reminding his men not to take broad action in response to his man’s death, Connors avoided creating animosity with the townsfolk. This goodwill allowed him to pinpoint the location of Insurgents #2, and to capture or kill them and their weapons cache, rendering Insurgents #2 inoperative. Since several insurgents were captured alive, this would be an intelligence source that can be used. Finally, it alerted other insurgents that the town was secure, and that they should delay their actions until the Americans leave.

Insurgents #3 captured the town and executed several people including Mayor Hussein and (maybe) Mohammed the Interpreter. This instilled fear into the rest of the town – the lesson being that cooperation with Americans would lead to death. Insurgents #3 also posted video of these executions online. The effects of this were to instill fear in American sympathizers throughout Iraq, to act as a morale booster for other insurgents, and to recruit new insurgents from across the globe. Finally, it led to the demoralization of one 2LT Phil Connors.

Intelligence Implications

The insurgents appeared three times in this story: first, when the COP came under attack; second, when insurgents occupied a house and used it as a weapons cache; third, when the insurgents reentered the town and executed townsfolk who acted as informants or cooperated with the Americans.

It cannot be assumed that these were all the same insurgents. The mayor explicitly stated that outsiders were recruiting locals to work for them. Further, the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) cannot be the same as the ones who executed townsfolk (Insurgents #3), since they were either captured or killed in the raid. Finally, the insurgents who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1) may or may not be the same as the ones captured at the weapons house (Insurgents #2). A mortar was found at the house, along with several shells, so they may have been the same. Only information gathered from the captured insurgents as well as forensic examination of the weapons can determine if the weapons house insurgents (Insurgents #2) were the same ones who attacked the COP (Insurgents #1).

Conclusion

The fifth evolution of The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa demonstrated the need for cooperation between the military, NGOs, and local government to successfully fight insurgents – and that one reason for a lack of cooperation is inter-agency rivalry. It also showed that when American forces leave an area, control must be transferred to local security and local government. In this fictitious example, local security apparently didn’t exist, and the mayor was truly not in charge, as demonstrated by his fear of helping the Americans. Thus, if local security or competent government don’t exist, they must be established before Americans leave the area. If not, then not only are the locals who work for Americans in danger, but also any progress the Americans make will be destroyed.

Footnotes

[1] Burgoyne & Marckwardt, The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa.
[2] Swinton, The Defense of Duffer’s Drift.
[3] TRADOC, “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.”
[4] Klepper, “Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis.”

Bibliography

Burgoyne, M. & Marckwardt, A. The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press, 2009.

Klepper, M. "Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis." The Other Side of History, 19 April 2024. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://the-other-side-of-history.blogspot.com/2024/04/jasr-al-doreaa-raft-analysis.html

Swinton, E. The Defense of Duffer’s Drift. U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Originally published 1906. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf

TRADOC. “The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa – Dream 5.” YouTube Video, 17:49. 9 May 2013. Retrieved 13 July 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYFB0zAcZl4

Jasr Al Doreaa: RAFT Analysis

Introduction

In 1904 the British Army officer Ernest Swinton wrote a book titled The Defence of Duffer's Drift. Set during the Second Boer War, it is narrated by a freshly-minted lieutenant named N. Backsight Forethought (BF), who is tasked with holding Duffer's Drift, the only ford on the Silliassvogel River open to wheeled traffic. BF initially thought this to be a trivial problem, stating "now if they had given me a job, say like fighting the Battle of Waterloo, or Gettysburg, or Bull Run, I knew all about that, as I had crammed it up...". He fails at this trivial problem, at least at first.

The story is told in a series of six nightmares. In the first five, BF makes mistakes that result in the defeat and capture of his platoon by the Boers. At the end of each nightmare, he analyzes his mistakes and compiles a list of lessons learned. These lessons range from the obvious (defend your camp before allowing your men to rest, and do not allow stray people into your camp - they will give intel to the enemy) to the more sophisticated (a hill may not necessarily be the best place to hold). BF is able to carry these lessons into the next evolution. Finally, in the last nightmare, he is able to hold Duffer's Drift against Boer ambushes and attacks until relief arrives.

The Defence of Duffer's Drift has been used by both British and US forces, among others, as a way of teaching small unit tactics. This style of instruction has been used repeatedly ever since, and used to teach other topics such as mechanized warfare and cyber warfare.

To teach junior officers basic counter-insurgency principles for use in Iraq, US Army Captains Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert J. Marckwardt wrote a 2009 novella called The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa. As in the The Defence of Duffer's Drift, the narrator experiences six nightmares, learning as he goes along. These six nightmares were converted into six computer-animated videos by TRADOC.

This paper is concerned with the sixth and final TRADOC video. When viewing it from the proported counter-insurgency lessons learned, one can only say "now do it for Afghanistan." Instead, the video will be considered from the standpoint of a military intelligence analyst, and a RAFT analysis will be performed on the ficticous Iraqi town of Jasr Al Doreaa and the Iraqi military, insurgents, and civilians present there.

Introduction to RAFT Analysis

RAFT Analysis is an analytic tool used to quickly identify key players, their functions, and the relations and tensions between the actors. The acronym stands for:

• R = Relationships – connections between key players
• A = Actors – key players
• F = Functions – what do the actors do, what are their capabilities?
• T = Tensions – conflicts between actors

Actors are the key players, and these actors have functions – what do they do, and what can they do? Relationships are about how are actors connected. This can be through military command structure, friendships, familial relations, etc. Tensions are the conflicts between the actors.

It makes sense to start with the actors.

Actors

2LT Phil Connors

• Platoon leader in charge of defending the town, and establishes a base
• Familiar with local tribes and customs but not the language
• Believes in "hearts and minds" approach to fighting insurgents:
  • Security achieved through gaining trust and confidence of locals
  • Separate insurgents from population
  • End the day with fewer insurgents
• Is quoted as saying "make no enemies" - take that as you will.

After Connors establishes his base, it comes under attack. This attack has three prongs: a mortar attack, a VBIED, and a direct assault by a 6-man team. Analysis of the VBIED shows that it originated in Syria. All people who initiated the mortar attack were killed. Of the 6 men who assaulted the base, 5 were killed, leaving only a man named Mohammed Jabori.

Mohammed Jabori

• Part of a 6-man team that assaulted Connor's base
• Rest of his team was killed
• Was armed with AK-47 when captured
• Local to the town of Jasr Al Doreaa
• Works for local Al-Qaeda leader, Kaseem Fareem
• One of his captors says "this guy is just a kid" - a kid with a mustache and a 5-o'clock shadow

Following the attack, Connors decides to go into Jasr Al Doreaa and meet with the locals. In this, he is assisted by LT Habir of the Iraqi Security Forces.

LT Habir

• Commander of local Iraqi forces
• Works with Connors when meeting with locals
• Cooperates with Connors in capturing the local Al-Qaeda leader
• Speaks both English and local language

While in town, Connors and Habir meet LT Habir's cousin, Ahmed, and they all go to Ahmed's house for tea or something.

Cousin Ahmed

• Cousin of LT Habir
• Friend of the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
• Can identify local Al-Qaeda members including leaders
• Key player because of his relationships and local knowledge

Once at Cousin Ahmed's house, the town mayor pays a visit. This is apparently an unscheduled meeting.

Mayor Hussein

• Mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa
• Embittered because of 4 years of unkept US promises
• Afraid of reprisal for working with Americans
• Cares about his town and relates the needs of his town to Connors and Habir:
  • Medical support - town has no doctors
  • Town needs security

During interrogation, Mohammed Jabori states that he works for the leader of the local Al-Qaeda. He gives a name, Kassim Fareed, but not how to find him. Cousin Ahmed helps out with this.

Kassim Fareed

• Leader of local Al-Qaeda
• Lived near Sunni mosque with bodyguards
• Moved into town 2 weeks ago, killing several villagers
• Considered to be a high value target
• Captured by Connors and Habir along with 3 security guards

Kassim Fareed was captured along with three other people. It was Cousin Ahmed who identified him. Along with the four insurgents, the capturing force finds weapons and IED-making equipment.

Relationships

The best way to examine relationships is through diagrams that look like this...

This diagram shows the key actors and the relationships between them. On the bottom corner is Connors; he works with LT Habir and with Cousin Ahmed using a interpreter named Mohammed. Ahmed and Habir are cousins. Ahmed and the Mayor are related in some way - friends? We don't know the details. Maybe this means Cousin Ahmed is what used to be called a "leading citizen."

Cousin Ahmed can identify members of the local Al-Qaeda insurgents including Kassim Fareed. Fareed works with Al-Qaeda. Either Fareed or some other member of the Al-Qaeda has threatened the Mayor.

Notice that Cousin Ahmed is related to the most other people in this diagram. This "centrality" implies that he has "influence" or at least knowledge of the key players. This is the type of information that can only be revealed with RAFT analysis.

With the available information we can diagram the local Al-Qaeda group...

Near the bottom is Muhammed Jabori who was captured in a raid on Connor's base. During interrogation he reveals that his manager in Al-Qauea is Kassim Fareem. He doesn't know how to locate him, however. Fareem is captured along with three of his security guards. A very valuable piece of information would be the name of Fareem's leader.

Note: we are assuming that Al-Qaeda is indeed a hierarchial organization.

Functions

Functions are the capabilities of the key actors: what they do and what can they do.

2LT Phil Connors is a prime mover (at least militarily) - he gets things done! He works well with his commander and the Iraqi Security Forces. He anticipates the town's security and medical needs, and gets police and medical training for them.

Connors is so proficient at getting things done that he almost has a superpower: he operates without von Clausewitz's "friction!"

Kassim Fareed commanded other insurgents. He possessed sufficient pull to get weapons and IED-making equipment. This means he probably supplied other insurgents with weapons and IEDs.

He might be the one who threatened Mayor Hussein for working with Americans.

Fareed's capture throws the local Al-Qaeda into disarray, at least in the short term.

Finally, Cousin Ahmed functions as the "glue" to the whole situation. He can identify key actors and form relationships with them. He's on good terms with Mayor Hussein and local Iraqi forces. He can at least identify local insurgency memvbers such as Kassim Fareed.

Tensions

The ultimate tension is between Coalition and Insurgent forces, but we care about tensions between the key actors. The major tension is between the mayor of Jasr Al Doreaa and the insurgents.

Mayor Hussein feels threatened by the local Al-Qaeda for working with Americans. He doubts the ability of Iraqi forces to defend the town. Connor's commander has a similar view of Iraqi forces. The mayor is apprehensive of the town's security once the American forces leaves.

Intelligence Sources, Gaps, and Goals

The available intelligence sources include:

• Captured Al-Qaeda members
• Families, friends, and acquaintances of captured and killed Al-Qaeda members
• Info from townsfolk, especially from Cousin Ahmed
• Physical evidence from Kassim Fareed's house
• Physical evidence from the VBIED that exploded earlier

There are several intelligence gaps, information that would be useful to have:

• Who is Kassim Fareed's leader?
• Are Mayor Hussain, Cousin Ahmed, and the interpreters loyal?
  • Are they playing both sides against each other?
• About the Mayor:
  • How was he threatened? By whom?
  • Did apprehension level go down after Kassim Fareed was captured?
• About Cousin Ahmed:
  • Who else does he know?
  • How did he get to know all these people?
  • What is the overall quality of information he can provide?

Conclusion - Next Steps

• Fill-in the intel gaps by:
  • Gather and analyze additional physical evidence
  • Continue getting intelligence from captured insurgents and family members
• Identify other insurgents
• About Cousin Ahmed:
  • Use as information source about locals and insurgents
  • Monitor his actions and contacts
• Follow-up on Syria connection from earlier VBIED explosion
• Look for changes in behavior of the locals following Kaseem Fareem's capture
• Derive actionable info and pass to Connors to execute

References

Burgoyne, M., Marckwardt, A., & Nagl, J. (2009). The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa. University of Chicago Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/jisaldoreaa.pdf

Swinton, E. D. (1904). The Defense of Duffer's Drift. Praetorian Press. Last retrieved on 19 April 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/swinton.pdf

TRADOC G2 OE Enterprise G&V. (2013). The Defense of Jisr Al Doreaa - Dream 6. Retrieved 3 April 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vHvae5BZRo