Introduction
Do modern strategic planning principles apply to historical battles, or is the application of those principles nothing but “retconning”? This is tested out on Joshua’s conquest of Canaan as described in the Bible.
Fresco at the Vatican by Raphael or his School, c. 1519
Summary of the Base Text
Prior to the start of the Book of Joshua, Moses and his people have been wandering the desert for 40 years. Joshua was about to become Moses’ successor.
Now that Moses is dead, God tells Joshua to take the people into the Promised Land, a land flowing with milk and honey. He states that they must get ready to cross the Jordan River, and He describes the extent of the land. He tells Joshua to be strong and not to be afraid, and that the people Joshua will lead must follow Moses' commandments.
Joshua then orders the leaders of the people to get ready for the journey and that in 3 days they'll cross the Jordan River. Once across, they'll take the land - God is ready to give it to them. Joshua states how the land will be divvied-up: 2.5 tribes will have east side of the Jordan River but must send troops to support the upcoming fighting. Those troops will be returned once the other tribes are safe. The people promise to follow Joshua as they did Moses.
Joshua sends two spies ahead to look at the city of Jericho. When they arrive there, they are taken in by a woman (prostitute?) named Rahab. The king of Jericho wants the spies, but Rahab protects them by hiding them on the roof of her house.
After the king's men went a-searching for the spies outside the walls of the city, Rahab informs the spies that the city is afraid. She makes the spies promise that Joshua will not kill her family. She helps them escape the city, telling the spies to hide in the hills for 3 days and then go back to their people. The departing spies tell her to tie a red string to the window and to get her family into the house where they'll be safe.
The spies return and report to Joshua.
The next morning, Joshua and all the Israelites leave Shittim and set camp next to the Jordan River. Three days later the tribal leaders go to every tent and tell them to follow the Covenant Box carried by the Levite priests. Joshua tells the priests to carry the Box at the front.
God tells Joshua to send the priests to the riverbank and wait. God then halts the water and allows the Israelites to cross. They commemorate the crossing by laying heaps of stone in the river and on the shore. They pitch their tents near the east side of Jericho.
The crossing proves to the people that God has Joshua's back!
God commanded Joshua to circumcise the Israelite men. They stayed at Gilgal until they were strong again. They ate the Passover meal, and the next day they ate food that came from Canaan. They never ate manna again.
God tells Joshua what he and his men must do in order to win the city of Jericho: they must march around it one time each day for 6 days, the priests blowing their trumpets. On the 7th day they must march around it 7 times while the priests blow their horns. The priests will blow their horns once more and the soldiers must give a loud shout. The city walls will fall, and the army will go into the city.
They did this, and on the 7th day the walls fell. The soldiers capture the city. Joshua has his two spies go to Rahab's house and bring out her family who were then taken to the Israelites' tents. The soldiers saved the precious metals, then burned the city to the ground. Joshua makes a promise: if anyone tries to rebuild the city, their children will die.
One of the Israelites took some of the precious metals for himself, and God became angry.
Joshua sent some men to reconnoiter the city of Ai. They returned, letting him know that 3000 men should be able to take it. Those men were all killed in their attempt to take Ai.
Joshua prayed in front of the Covenant Box. God tells him why he allowed Ai's soldiers to be victorious: some of his men had taken the precious metals.
The next morning, Joshua has all the tribes stand before God. God picksout Achan, who then tells everybody what he did. Joshua sends men to collect all the items Achan had hidden for himself. They also remove Achan's sons, daughters, and cows, sheep, and donkeys. They take all of them to the Achor valley where the Israelites stoned them to death.
God ceased being angry with his people.
God tells Joshua to take the city of Ai, but this time they can keep the animals and other valuables.
Joshua places 30,000 men to the west of Ai. In the morning, Joshua had his other men attack from the north. They feigned retreat, the Ai chased them, leaving the city undefended. The men who were waiting to the west then attacked the city, setting it ablaze. The Israelites who had been running away saw the smoke then turned to fight the men of Ai.
The Israelites who took the city went out to fight the Ai, so the Ai was trapped between two groups. Only the king of Ai survived. The king was captured and brought to Joshua. He was hung, then buried.
Following this, Joshua builds an altar on Ebal mountain. He carves Moses' laws into stones, then reads them to the Israelites as well as the foreign people among them.
Some people from the city of Gibeon approach Joshua, convincing him not to attack them if they became his servants. Joshua and the Israelite leaders agreed not to attack Gibeon. Three days after making this agreement, Joshua learns that the Gibeonites lived near them, but due to the promise Joshua made, they did not take the city.
The king of Jerusalem, King Adoni-Zedek, convinces four other kings to band together to form the Amorites and then proceed to attack the Gibeonites. The Gibeonites ask Joshua (currently at Gilgal) for help. Joshua and his army march from Gilgal and attack the Amorites. The Amorites withdrew from Gibeon, in part because of the Israelite army, in part because the Lord sent large hailstones down upon them. Joshua asks God that the sun stand still over Gibeon city and the moon stand still over Aijalon valley, allowing the Israelites to punish their enemies.
Their armies routed, the five Amorite kings take refuge in a cave. Joshua orders the cave to be sealed until they finish fighting the enemy armies. The Israelites did defeat them but allowed some members of the Amorite armies to make it back to their cities to tell the people of the events. The five kings are released from the caves and are then killed and buried in that cave.
Joshua and the Israelites then attack the other cities, cities that were far from Gilgal in one long fight. After this they returned to Gilgal.
Several kings from the north band together in an attempt to kill the Israelites, but Joshua and his armies defeat them. Fighting in this way, Joshua takes the whole land. After that, the people do not have to fight anymore. Thus the Canaanites were driven out - Joshua captured their territory, but the people remained.
In the end, Joshua and the Israelites took the land of 31 kings in 6 years.
Strategic Planning
As described in Joshua 1-12[1], Joshua incorporated many principles of strategic planning into this campaign. In particular, the balancing of ends, ways, means, and risk - identified by Lykke[2] as crucial to strategic planning - was displayed. (Note: since the Book of Joshua is told in third-person omniscient, we have no way of knowing if Joshua was considering this balance.)
The desired end was to capture Canaan for later division amongst the twelve tribes. Joshua did capture the territory, eliminating many of the cities it contained, but the Canaanite people did survive. The way this goal was accomplished was through two broad campaigns supported by HUMINT, one to the south (described in Joshua 10) followed by a northern campaign (Joshua 11) where Joshua and the Israelites defeated 6 Canaanite areas and 31 kings in 6 years. Joshua did this with the means of the Israelite army and his leadership over that army, his campaign planning, along with some supernatural help at each stage. Because of divine assistance, the risk was low.
Lykke[3] would call this a "balanced strategy" in that the selected way (the campaigns) is capable of and has sufficient means (Israelite army + planning + divine assistance) to obtain the desired end (capture Canaan).
Various center of gravity (COG) considerations should be considered. Eikmeier[4] describes the following concepts:
Center of gravity is the primary source of strength, power, or resistance, which can be either physical or moral. In the case of the Conquest of the Land of Canaan, this would be the large Israelite army (physical strength) plus the belief that they had divine protection (moral strength).
Critical capabilities are the abilities the COG has in order to make it the central player in the given scenario. In this situation, this would be the fighting abilities of the Israelite army.
Critical requirements are the resources and means for the critical capability to be operational. In order for the Israelite army to be operative, there are some means of logistic support, Joshua's leadership, and a leadership structure. This latter is hinted at in the source text - Joshua commands the leaders of the 12 tribes, and the tribal leaders command their armies.
Critical vulnerabilities are the "critical requirements or components thereof which are either deficient or vulnerable to neutralization, interdiction, or attack (moral/physical harm) in a manner that achieves decisive results." There are two vulnerabilities, one explicitly mentioned in the Book of Joshua, the other implicit. Explicitly mentioned is the possibility that one of the men may disobey the Lord's commandments - this is demonstrated in how Achan's looting caused God to remove His favor, resulting in Joshua's defeat in his first attempt to take the city of Ai. A second source could be disunity amongst the 12 tribes. Joshua addressed this with the stoppage of the Jordan River, the sun and moon standing still, etc.
Eikmeier[5] describes how to connect the strategic framework with the COG in several steps.
Step 1: identify desired goal - capture and control the territory of Canaan.
Step 2: Identify ways to achieve that goal - cross the Jordan River, eliminate the two cities closest to the crossing point (thus establishing a toehold), and then expand control through southern and northern campaigns.
Step 3: List the means required to enable and implement the critical capability (the way) - the Israelite army would be the way, supported by the information Joshua's spies returned. There is only one non-military way mentioned in the source text: the assimilation of the Gibeonites.
Step 4: Choose the most consequential entity from the list of means, and this will be the center of gravity. In this example, the critical capability would be the skillful use of the Israelite army.
Eikmeier then describes the "Does/Uses Test" as a way to validate the cogency of the analysis: the COG does the action and uses resources to accomplish it. In this scenario, the Israelite army does the action (conquering the Canaanite territory) and uses resources (supplies) to do it. Thus we have selected the proper COG as the .
Conclusion
Based on the strategic framework outlined in JP 5-0[6] and expanded by Lykke and Eikmeier, strategic planning does appear to be in action in the capture of Canaanite territory.
Footnotes
[1] Source text used here is from https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Joshua+1-12&version=NIV&interface=print[2] Lykke, "Defining Military Strategy."
[3] Ibid.
[4] Eikmeier, "A Logical Method for Center-of-Gravity Analysis."
[5] Ibid.
[6] JCS, Joint Planning, Ch. IV, especially p. IV-5
Bibliography
Eikmeier, D. "A Logical Method for Center-of-Gravity Analysis". Military Review, September-October 2007. Retrieved 19 September 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20071031_art009.pdf
Joint Chiefs of Staff. JP 5-0 Joint Planning. 16 June 2017.
Lykke, A. "Defining Military Strategy" Military Review, January-February 1997. Retrieved 19 September 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/75th-Anniversary/75th-PDF/75th-Lykke.pdf
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