Descriptive Analysis
On 29 July 2021, the Motor Tanker Mercer Street was attacked twice by Iranian drones while operating in the Gulf of Oman. A third drone attack on 30 July 2021 created a 6-foot-wide hole in the pilot house, resulting in the death of the tanker’s captain and a security officer. The USS Ronald Reagan and USS Mitscher rendered aid. Evidence was collected by an American Explosive Ordnance Disposal team, and a multinational team performed forensic analysis on the debris.[1]
From an agency collaboration perspective, investigations, such as the one completed for this attack, are complicated by the multiple nations operating and crewing the vessel. In the case of the Mercer Street, the ship was flagged under Liberia, was owned by the Japanese, and managed by an Israeli company. The ship’s captain was Romanian, and the security officer killed was British.
This multi-national vessel operation is certainly not unique to the Mercer Street – a February 2024 report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development explained the situation as follows:
A typical ship may be built in the Republic of Korea, crewed by Filippino [sic] seafarers recruited through a crewing agency based in Cyprus, owned by a German investment fund, technically inspected by an Indian classification society, registered under the flag of the Marshall Islands, insured by a protection and indemnity club in Norway, fuelled [sic] at a bunkering station in Singapore and operated by liner shipping company in Denmark.[2]
Root Cause Analysis
Use of military forces against merchant ships operating in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea areas have gone back at least to the Tanker Wars of 1984 – 1988. This involved attacks on merchant vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman by both Iran and Iraq. During that time, 411 ships were attacked, 239 of which were oil tankers[3].
The attack on the Mercer Street was a continuation of Iraq’s policy of harassing any vessel not bound for an Iraqi port. It is a form of low-intensity conflict aimed at countries opposed to Iran, or at least not aligned with Iran.
The Mercer Street was attacked primarily because it was operated by Zodiac Maritime, Ltd., an Israeli company. Other recently attacked ships[4], such as the TRF Moss and the oil tanker Richmond Voyager, are either US-owned or have no clear ownership-ties with Israel or America. These attacks have led vessels to set their Automatic Identification System messages to read “norelationtoisrael” or “allchinesecrew.”[5]
Implication Analysis
The Iranian and Iranian-backed Houthi attacks in these two gulfs, together with Somali pirate attacks, is making commercial shipping in the entire area cost prohibitive. As such, traffic that once passed through the Suez Canal is now routed around the Cape of Good Hope[6].
Revenue generated by the Suez Canal constituted 2.3 percent of Egypt’s GDP in 2023. This has dropped 40% because of Iranian-backed piracy[7]. In addition, foreign trade in East African countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan have also decreased[8].
Anticipation Analysis
From the time of the Mercer Street attack, Iran has continued harassing and/or attacking merchant vessels operating in the Gulf of Omar and the Gulf of Aden, either directly or via Yemen’s Houthi rebels. It is expected that these attacks will continue in response to ongoing Israeli operations against the Gaza Strip.
The economic losses to Egypt and East African countries can lead to political destabilization of those countries. The rerouting of traffic around the Cape of Good Hope adds additional transport time, fuel costs, and crew costs to the shipped goods.
Foot Notes
[1] USCENTCOM. “U.S. Central Command Statement on the Investigation into the Attack on the Motor Tanker Mercer Street.”
[2] UNCTAD, “Navigating Troubled Waters”
[3] N/A. “Strait of Hormuz.”
[4] N/A, “U.S. Prevents Iran from Seizing Two Merchant Tankers in Gulf of Oman.”
[5] Duggal & Haddad, “Mapping the Red Sea attacks.”
[6] UNCTAD, “Navigating Troubled Waters”
[7] Dom Magli, “Red Sea crisis triggers 40 per cent drop in Suez Canal revenues.”
[8] Vreÿ & Blaine, “Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean Attacks Expose Africa’s Maritime Vulnerability.”
Bibliography
Duggal, H. & Haddad, M. “Mapping the Red Sea attacks: How Houthi attacks on one of the world’s main maritime trade routes have impacted international trade.” Interactive Al Jazeera, 22 February 2024. Last retrieved 2 May 2024 from https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2024/mapping-red-sea-shipping-attacks/
Magli, D. “Red Sea crisis triggers 40 per cent drop in Suez Canal revenues.” Port Technology International, 15 January 2024. Last retrieved on 2 May 2024 from https://www.porttechnology.org/news/red-sea-crisis-triggers-40-per-cent-drop-in-suez-canal-revenues/
N/A. “U.S. Prevents Iran from Seizing Two Merchant Tankers in Gulf of Oman.” U.S. Naval Forces Central Command Public Affairs, 5 July 2023. Retrieved 1 May 2024 from https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3448330/us-prevents-iran-from-seizing-two-merchant-tankers-in-gulf-of-oman/
N/A. “Strait of Hormuz: Accessing the threat to oil flows through the Strait.” Strauss Center, August 2008. Retrieved 2 May 2024 from https://www.strausscenter.org/strait-of-hormuz-tanker-war/
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. “Navigating Troubled Waters: Impact to Global Trade of Disruption of Shipping Routes in the Red Sea, Black Sea and Panama Canal”. UNCTAD Rapid Assessment, February 2024. Retrieved 2 May 2024 from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2024d2_en.pdf
USCENTCOM. “U.S. Central Command Statement on the Investigation into the Attack on the Motor Tanker Mercer Street.” U.S. Central Command Press Release, 6 August 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2024 from https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/2722418/us-central-command-statement-on-the-investigation-into-the-attack-on-the-motor/
Vreÿ, F. & Blaine, M. “Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean Attacks Expose Africa’s Maritime Vulnerability.” Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 9 April 2024. Retrieved 2 May 2024 from https://africacenter.org/spotlight/red-sea-indian-ocean-attacks-africa-maritime-vulnerability/
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