Battle of COP Keating

Geographic Analysis

Combat Outpost (COP) Keating was positioned in the Kamdesh District of Afghanistan, 25 km away from the Pakistan border. It was located in mountainous terrain, at the bottom of a valley, along an unimproved road which ran alongside the Darreh ye Kushtoz River. The village of Urmal was located 200 meters west of the COP.

COP Keating, located at the bottom of a valley in the Kamdesh District of Afghanistan. Photo by Brad Larson.

The surrounding mountains were not secured, except for the one capped by OP Fritsche, located 2.2 miles south of COP Keating with a 2144 ft difference in elevation. COP Keating and OP Fritsche were not in line of sight of each other.

Close to COP Keating was a mosque located on a ridgeline that would serve as an enemy fire position.

This area - the COP, the OP, the mosque, and surrounding mountains – would be the location of the Battle of Kamdesh, also called the Battle of COP Keating. Taliban insurgents had engaged the ground unit assigned to COP Keating and OP Fritsche over 45 times since May 2009.

Squadron HQ was located at Forward Operating Base (FOB) Bostick, 30 km southeast of COP Keating, or 10 minutes flight time by helicopter. Task force and brigade headquarters were both located at FOB Fenty in Jalalabad, 137 km southwest of COP Keating, or 40 minutes flight time by helicopter. These bases would supply air and artillery support during the battle.

The Battle

At the time of the attack, COP Keating had 73 troops (53 US troops and 20 Afghan National Army (ANA)), and OP Fritsche had 29 troops (19 US and 10 ANA) stationed there.

Immediately prior to the attack, insurgents occupied the mosque and five nearby support by fire (SBF) positions. These positions were overlooking COP Keating and would also interfere with air support.

The attacks on FOB Keating and OP Fritsche began simultaneously on the morning of 3 October 2009. The mortar pit at COP Keating was pinned-down and soldiers were unable to return fire. Meanwhile, the men at OP Fritsche were pinned-down by other insurgents. Thus, the two OPs were unable to support each other.

FOB Bostick began indirect fire in support of COP Keating. Two F-15s arrived at COP Keating and began engaging insurgents. The insurgents continued attacking FOB Keating from three different directions, forcing the US and ANA troops to collapse into a defensive position within COP Keating.

OP Fritsche repulsed the insurgents and provided mortar fire in support of COP Keating.

Most of the buildings were on fire by this time and the base was partially overran by the insurgents. US forces pushed outwards to retake lost positions within COP Keating.

Part of a quick reaction force (QRF) from FOB Bostic arrived by helicopter at OP Fritsche, but weather delayed the rest of the QRF from arriving by one hour.

As fire continued to engulf COP Keating, the QRF departed OP Fritsche on foot towards COP Keating. Two hours into their descent, the QRF called-in close air support and engaged the insurgents. This forced the QRF to move using bounding overwatch, slowing their advance to COP Keating.

The QRF arrived 13 hours after the attack started. They began clearing operations and established a landing zone to allow for medical evacuation (MEDIVAC). Enemy fire prevented MEDIVAC fights from using that landing zone, but additional air support allowed the flights to commence.

Sixteen hours after the attack began, the last MEDIVAC flight left COP Keating. Eight U.S. soldiers were killed and 27 wounded; eight ANA soldiers were wounded. Approximately twenty-seven insurgents were killed. Only one of the buildings remained intact. The munitions depot was abandoned following US departure, which was then looted by the Taliban. The depot was bombed by Americans on 6 October to destroy any remaining munitions. Four officers were disciplined because of the attack. (ABC News, 2010).

Starburst Analysis

Starburst analysis is a structured analytic technique (SAT) that seeks to ensure that analysists have a grasp of the situation they’re investigating. It allows them to enumerate the actors, to handle information overload, and to differentiate and isolate root causes from symptoms. It allows analysts to identify gaps in their intelligence.

Who are the Primary Actors?

The primary actors consisted of US and ANA forces fighting against Taliban insurgents. The US and ANA forces had 73 troops stationed at COP Keating and 29 troops stationed at OP Fritsche. The QRF from FOB Bostic and air support reinforced COP Keating. Approximately 300 Taliban insurgents were involved.

What were the Key Activities?

The key activity was the battle between US/ANA troops and the Taliban fighters at COP Keating and OP Fritsche. This was preceded by planning and observation by the Taliban.

When

The battle itself took place on 3 October 2009 but planning by the Taliban and village elders started months prior.

Where

The battle took place at COP Keating (located at the bottom of a valley) and the nearby OP Fritsche, located at a higher elevation but not within direct line of sight. The Taliban attack made use of the mountains surrounding COP Keating to not only rain fire down upon the camp but also attack any incoming air support. In addition, the insurgent attack on OP Fritsche pinned-down the forces located there. The insurgents made use of a local mosque as a firing position, which the Americans would be loathe to attack.

Why

COP Keating was established in July 2006 and was left in place to prevent weapon shipments and insurgent movements across the Pakistan border. The Taliban attack was designed to dislocate the COP, presumably to allow the flow of weapons and fighters to continue.

How

The Battle of COP Keating was a two-pronged attack, one against COP Keating (presumably the primary target), the other against OP Fritsche. Both targets were engaged simultaneously to prevent one from assisting the other. Kept isolated, the nearest air support to the COP and OP was 10 minutes away by helicopter from FOB Bostick.

Information Sources

It is necessary to evaluate information that was available prior to the Battle of COP Keating as well as information sources generated after the battle took place.

Hindsight is 20/20 and one would expect to find analyses of the Battle of COP Keating. Beyond one TRADOC video, not much information is available besides personal accounts, popular books, as well as the 2020 movie called “The Outpost.” Many of the details of the battle did not come to light until the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diaries. Analysis of the battles were no doubt performed, but it may have been the case that analysts found some fundamental security flaw that was best kept secret.

Apparently, there were multiple intelligence failures. Building on (Gertz. 2009), Hershel Smith writes (Smith, 2009):

…defense intelligence had three reports of imminent danger but failed to act on this intelligence. What “smoking gun report” would have convinced them to take action we aren’t told…

Smith goes on to hint that a “smoking gun report” may have been in possession of the CIA.

Prior to the battle, there are the lessons learned from the 45 times that US forces engaged the Taliban since May 2009. Each engagement would be amenable to Starburst Analysis; in particular, information about the names and numbers of insurgents involved, the weapons and tactics they used, as well as the kinds of information they used in formulating their attacks. The troops involved could all be interviewed. All of this information would be local to the area of COP Keating of course.

The Battle of Wanat, which occurred on 13 July 2008, could also serve as a source of information. This battle was similar to the Battle of COP Keating in many ways, including the number of fighters on each side, geography, the distance from FOBs, etc. Unlike COP Keating, analyses of the Battle of Wanat are publicly available. (Steeb, et. al., 2011), (Staff of the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute, 2010).

The battle sites are separated by straight line distance of 56 km, so a different set of Taliban fighters may have been involved. Starburst Analysis of the Battle of Wanat could indicate common actors, tactics, and weapons when compared to the Battle of COP Keating, however. These commonalities would allow analysts to figure out the hierarchical structure of the Taliban as well as to observe the evolution of their weapons and tactics. Final analyses of the Battle of Wanat were completed after the Battle of COP Keating, but preliminary studies must have been available.

Population studies of the people living near COP Keating would be useful for determining local attitudes and for building a social network of the people.

Another critical information stream would be a scholarly perspective. Thaler, et. al. (2013, p. 12) sites several academic papers (many published prior to the battle) stating that Afghanistan has a culture of independence and resistance. This is a very specific characterization and probably wouldn’t hold for all Afghani. If it applies to the people living near COP Keating, this will determine how Afghani would relate to or tolerate foreign presence, if at all.

 

References

ABC News. (5 February 2010). “Camp Keating officers disciplined for attack that killed 8 U. S. troops.” Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://abcnews.go.com/WN/Afghanistan/camp-keating-commanders-disciplined-attack-killed-22-us/story?id=9761160

Gertz, B. (29 October 2009). “DIA on Afghan intel” Washington Times. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/29/inside-the-ring-58944275/

Smith, H. (2 November 2009). “Systematic defense intelligence failures”. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.captainsjournal.com/2009/11/02/systemic-defense-intelligence-failures/

Staff of the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. (2010). “Wanat: Combat action in Afghanistan, 2008”. Combat Studies Institute Press. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/Wanat.pdf

Steeb, Matsumura, Herbert, Gordon IV, & Horn. (2011). “Perspectives on the Battle of Wanat”. Rand Corporation. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2011/RAND_OP329z1.pdf

Thaler, Brown, Gonzalez, Mobley, & Roshan. (2013). “Improving the U.S. Military’s understanding of unstable environments vulnerable to violent extremist groups”. RAND Corporation. Retrieved 29 June 2024 from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR298.html

TRADOC G2 OE Enterprise G&V. (10 August 2012). “The battle of COP Keating - October 3rd, 2009”. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylUzySZb3L8

WikiLeaks War Diary. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://wardiaries.wikileaks.org/search/?q=cop+keating∓sort=date∓release=Afghanistan∓date__gte=2009-10-03∓date__lte=2009-10-09