Sunday, June 30, 2024

Battle of COP Keating

Geographic Analysis

Combat Outpost (COP) Keating was positioned in the Kamdesh District of Afghanistan, 25 km away from the Pakistan border. It was located in mountainous terrain, at the bottom of a valley, along an unimproved road which ran alongside the Darreh ye Kushtoz River. The village of Urmal was located 200 meters west of the COP.

COP Keating, located at the bottom of a valley in the Kamdesh District of Afghanistan. Photo by Brad Larson.

The surrounding mountains were not secured, except for the one capped by OP Fritsche, located 2.2 miles south of COP Keating with a 2144 ft difference in elevation. COP Keating and OP Fritsche were not in line of sight of each other.

Close to COP Keating was a mosque located on a ridgeline that would serve as an enemy fire position.

This area - the COP, the OP, the mosque, and surrounding mountains – would be the location of the Battle of Kamdesh, also called the Battle of COP Keating. Taliban insurgents had engaged the ground unit assigned to COP Keating and OP Fritsche over 45 times since May 2009.

Squadron HQ was located at Forward Operating Base (FOB) Bostick, 30 km southeast of COP Keating, or 10 minutes flight time by helicopter. Task force and brigade headquarters were both located at FOB Fenty in Jalalabad, 137 km southwest of COP Keating, or 40 minutes flight time by helicopter. These bases would supply air and artillery support during the battle.

The Battle

At the time of the attack, COP Keating had 73 troops (53 US troops and 20 Afghan National Army (ANA)), and OP Fritsche had 29 troops (19 US and 10 ANA) stationed there.

Immediately prior to the attack, insurgents occupied the mosque and five nearby support by fire (SBF) positions. These positions were overlooking COP Keating and would also interfere with air support.

The attacks on FOB Keating and OP Fritsche began simultaneously on the morning of 3 October 2009. The mortar pit at COP Keating was pinned-down and soldiers were unable to return fire. Meanwhile, the men at OP Fritsche were pinned-down by other insurgents. Thus, the two OPs were unable to support each other.

FOB Bostick began indirect fire in support of COP Keating. Two F-15s arrived at COP Keating and began engaging insurgents. The insurgents continued attacking FOB Keating from three different directions, forcing the US and ANA troops to collapse into a defensive position within COP Keating.

OP Fritsche repulsed the insurgents and provided mortar fire in support of COP Keating.

Most of the buildings were on fire by this time and the base was partially overran by the insurgents. US forces pushed outwards to retake lost positions within COP Keating.

Part of a quick reaction force (QRF) from FOB Bostic arrived by helicopter at OP Fritsche, but weather delayed the rest of the QRF from arriving by one hour.

As fire continued to engulf COP Keating, the QRF departed OP Fritsche on foot towards COP Keating. Two hours into their descent, the QRF called-in close air support and engaged the insurgents. This forced the QRF to move using bounding overwatch, slowing their advance to COP Keating.

The QRF arrived 13 hours after the attack started. They began clearing operations and established a landing zone to allow for medical evacuation (MEDIVAC). Enemy fire prevented MEDIVAC fights from using that landing zone, but additional air support allowed the flights to commence.

Sixteen hours after the attack began, the last MEDIVAC flight left COP Keating. Eight U.S. soldiers were killed and 27 wounded; eight ANA soldiers were wounded. Approximately twenty-seven insurgents were killed. Only one of the buildings remained intact. The munitions depot was abandoned following US departure, which was then looted by the Taliban. The depot was bombed by Americans on 6 October to destroy any remaining munitions. Four officers were disciplined because of the attack. (ABC News, 2010).

Starburst Analysis

Starburst analysis is a structured analytic technique (SAT) that seeks to ensure that analysists have a grasp of the situation they’re investigating. It allows them to enumerate the actors, to handle information overload, and to differentiate and isolate root causes from symptoms. It allows analysts to identify gaps in their intelligence.

Who are the Primary Actors?

The primary actors consisted of US and ANA forces fighting against Taliban insurgents. The US and ANA forces had 73 troops stationed at COP Keating and 29 troops stationed at OP Fritsche. The QRF from FOB Bostic and air support reinforced COP Keating. Approximately 300 Taliban insurgents were involved.

What were the Key Activities?

The key activity was the battle between US/ANA troops and the Taliban fighters at COP Keating and OP Fritsche. This was preceded by planning and observation by the Taliban.

When

The battle itself took place on 3 October 2009 but planning by the Taliban and village elders started months prior.

Where

The battle took place at COP Keating (located at the bottom of a valley) and the nearby OP Fritsche, located at a higher elevation but not within direct line of sight. The Taliban attack made use of the mountains surrounding COP Keating to not only rain fire down upon the camp but also attack any incoming air support. In addition, the insurgent attack on OP Fritsche pinned-down the forces located there. The insurgents made use of a local mosque as a firing position, which the Americans would be loathe to attack.

Why

COP Keating was established in July 2006 and was left in place to prevent weapon shipments and insurgent movements across the Pakistan border. The Taliban attack was designed to dislocate the COP, presumably to allow the flow of weapons and fighters to continue.

How

The Battle of COP Keating was a two-pronged attack, one against COP Keating (presumably the primary target), the other against OP Fritsche. Both targets were engaged simultaneously to prevent one from assisting the other. Kept isolated, the nearest air support to the COP and OP was 10 minutes away by helicopter from FOB Bostick.

Information Sources

It is necessary to evaluate information that was available prior to the Battle of COP Keating as well as information sources generated after the battle took place.

Hindsight is 20/20 and one would expect to find analyses of the Battle of COP Keating. Beyond one TRADOC video, not much information is available besides personal accounts, popular books, as well as the 2020 movie called “The Outpost.” Many of the details of the battle did not come to light until the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diaries. Analysis of the battles were no doubt performed, but it may have been the case that analysts found some fundamental security flaw that was best kept secret.

Apparently, there were multiple intelligence failures. Building on (Gertz. 2009), Hershel Smith writes (Smith, 2009):

…defense intelligence had three reports of imminent danger but failed to act on this intelligence. What “smoking gun report” would have convinced them to take action we aren’t told…
Smith goes on to hint that a “smoking gun report” may have been in possession of the CIA.

Prior to the battle, there are the lessons learned from the 45 times that US forces engaged the Taliban since May 2009. Each engagement would be amenable to Starburst Analysis; in particular, information about the names and numbers of insurgents involved, the weapons and tactics they used, as well as the kinds of information they used in formulating their attacks. The troops involved could all be interviewed. All of this information would be local to the area of COP Keating of course.

The Battle of Wanat, which occurred on 13 July 2008, could also serve as a source of information. This battle was similar to the Battle of COP Keating in many ways, including the number of fighters on each side, geography, the distance from FOBs, etc. Unlike COP Keating, analyses of the Battle of Wanat are publicly available. (Steeb, et. al., 2011), (Staff of the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute, 2010).

The battle sites are separated by straight line distance of 56 km, so a different set of Taliban fighters may have been involved. Starburst Analysis of the Battle of Wanat could indicate common actors, tactics, and weapons when compared to the Battle of COP Keating, however. These commonalities would allow analysts to figure out the hierarchical structure of the Taliban as well as to observe the evolution of their weapons and tactics. Final analyses of the Battle of Wanat were completed after the Battle of COP Keating, but preliminary studies must have been available.

Population studies of the people living near COP Keating would be useful for determining local attitudes and for building a social network of the people.

Another critical information stream would be a scholarly perspective. Thaler, et. al. (2013, p. 12) sites several academic papers (many published prior to the battle) stating that Afghanistan has a culture of independence and resistance. This is a very specific characterization and probably wouldn’t hold for all Afghani. If it applies to the people living near COP Keating, this will determine how Afghani would relate to or tolerate foreign presence, if at all.

References

ABC News. (5 February 2010). “Camp Keating officers disciplined for attack that killed 8 U. S. troops.” Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://abcnews.go.com/WN/Afghanistan/camp-keating-commanders-disciplined-attack-killed-22-us/story?id=9761160

Gertz, B. (29 October 2009). “DIA on Afghan intel” Washington Times. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/29/inside-the-ring-58944275/

Smith, H. (2 November 2009). “Systematic defense intelligence failures”. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.captainsjournal.com/2009/11/02/systemic-defense-intelligence-failures/

Staff of the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. (2010). “Wanat: Combat action in Afghanistan, 2008”. Combat Studies Institute Press. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/Wanat.pdf

Steeb, Matsumura, Herbert, Gordon IV, & Horn. (2011). “Perspectives on the Battle of Wanat”. Rand Corporation. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2011/RAND_OP329z1.pdf

Thaler, Brown, Gonzalez, Mobley, & Roshan. (2013). “Improving the U.S. Military’s understanding of unstable environments vulnerable to violent extremist groups”. RAND Corporation. Retrieved 29 June 2024 from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR298.html

TRADOC G2 OE Enterprise G&V. (10 August 2012). “The battle of COP Keating - October 3rd, 2009”. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylUzySZb3L8

WikiLeaks War Diary. Retrieved 30 June 2024 from https://wardiaries.wikileaks.org/search/?q=cop+keating∓sort=date∓release=Afghanistan∓date__gte=2009-10-03∓date__lte=2009-10-09

Friday, June 28, 2024

On the Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Operationally, remote-controlled weapons are force multipliers. Politically, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can cut both ways: their use minimizes casualties, but they can also be used in “inconvenient” ways. Ethically, the military use of UAVs or drones are controversial in two ways: their use for assassinations and their overall use in the context of Just War Theory.

An MQ-9 Reaper UAV flies over the Nevada Test and Training Range and performs live-fire exercises.
(U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Victoria Nuzzi)

Use for Targeted Assassination

Probably the most controversial use of drones is when the target is an American citizen. This is exactly what happened on 30 September 2011 when Anwar al-Awlaki was executed in the second of two CIA drone missile attacks against him.

In reading biographical information on al-Awlaki, one must ask oneself: in what sense was he a citizen?

Al-Awlaki was born of Yemeni parents who were living in New Mexico at the time, but the family returned to Yemen when he was seven years old. He later returned to the US and soon got on the FBI radar, which of course amounted to nothing even though he has certainly either influenced or played an operational role in numerous terrorist actions against the United States1:

  • He had extended contact with at least two of the 9/11 hijackers
  • He had direct contact and influenced Nidal Hasan to commit the 2009 Fort Hood shooting
  • One of his students, a member of al-Qaeda, was the "Underwear Bomber" who attempted to bomb a Northwest Airlines flight on Christmas 2009
  • The Times Square bomber was also a follower of Al-Awlaki
  • He issued a fatwa against the organizer of the "Everybody Draw Mohammed Day" contest
  • He also influenced Omar Mateen's shooting at the Pulse Night Club in Florida. (I lost an acquaintance in that attack.)

Through his teachings, Al-Awlaki denounced America and influenced others to take direct action against her. Regardless of whether birthright citizenship is legal or ethical, Al-Awlaki was a US citizen only in the sense that in some database, a box next to his name was checked.

There is apparently a legal framework against extrajudicial killing. Section 2.11 of the 2008 amended EO 12333 explicitly prohibits assassination2 3. It is unclear how the assassination was squared with that EO.

Al-Awlaki was charged in absentia in Yemen for being a member of al Qaeda. It isn't clear at all why he couldn't be tried in absentia in a US court. The rules for such trials are well-established but were not followed by the Obama administration.

Nasser al-Awlaki, Anwar's father, filed for injunction prior to both drone strikes, but Nasser lacked locus standi. It is unknown how Nasser learned that his son was on the targeted killing list.

The only objectional part of Al-Awlaki's death by drone strike, I claim, is that he wasn't tried in absentia. It is uncertain whether Al-Awlaki could have been extradited from Yemen, which is where he was killed. Lawsuits before and following his death seeking the release of the standards under which an American can be so targeted have apparently been unsuccessful.

So, was al-Awlaki's execution legal? We may never know as the standards for extrajudicial killing still appear to be a secret. All we know is that it couldn't have happened to a more deserving person.

Overall Drone Use

The use of drones has been addressed by just war theorists, including Bradley Jay Strawser. In his 2010 paper “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles,”4 he begins by distinguishing “man-in-the-loop” or “man-on-the-loop” weapon systems from “man-out-of-the-loop” systems. He rejects the latter but argues that the use of man-in-the-loop and man-on-the-loop weapons are morally justifiable.

Strawser raises and addresses six objections to UAV usage. Here are two of them.

One of his objections is that UAVs lead to violations of the jus in bello Principle of Discrimination, the idea being that poor-quality or unreliable video feeds would limit the ability of the pilot to discriminate between combatant and non-combatant. This is a limitation that currently is not true, and Strawser quotes statistics showing that, in comparison to conventional forces, UAVs resulted in far fewer noncombatant deaths relative to combatant deaths. Further, by flying at lower altitudes than manned aircraft, more accurate targeting is to be expected. Finally, Strawser notes that the manufacturer of a missile designed for use on UAVs (a drone on a drone) has achieved “urban warfare precision,” and that the missile is controlled after it has been launched (“fire, observe, and update” as opposed to “fire and forget”).

Another objection is that UAVs create an unjust asymmetry in combat, in that “one side literally does not take any life-or-death risks whatsoever (or nearly so, since its warfighters are not even present in the primary theater of combat) whereas the opposing side carries all the risk of combat.” His response is perhaps the strongest part of his paper:

[T]here is no chivalrous reason for a just combatant to ‘equal the playing field’ or ‘fight fair.’ If combatant A fights under a just cause, while combatant B fights for an unjust cause, combatant A owes nothing to combatant B by way of exposing his/herself to some minimal threshold of risk. Thus, it is right for combatant A to reduce the risk in an engagement with the unjust enemy.

Worded another way: if we find ourselves in a “fair fight,” we make it unfair to our opponents, however possible.

One objection Strawser doesn’t raise is the problem of the drone pilot’s location. Range matters, and the remote-controlled weapons from previous wars all required the pilot or operator to be either in-theater or very close.

Again, range matters. At some point, the range of American artillery exceeded that of an enemy’s. Does this mean that the enemy surrenders without a fight? No: the enemy will simply attack from a position so close that the use of our artillery would be prohibitive because of the likelihood of harming our own troops.

What would an enemy do when facing-off against a UAV system? There are at least four points of vulnerability: the drone itself, the takeoff and landing site(s) of the drone, the communication system controlling the drone, and the drone’s pilot. Just as in the case of the artillery, the enemy will move close to attack. This means that the pilot is a legitimate target.

In the case of drones, though, the pilot could be located within the United States. For example, Anwar al-Awlaki was executed while in Yemen, but the drone pilot was located at the Creech Air Force Base outside Las Vegas, Nevada5.

Thus, there was a legitimate target for the enemy within our own borders.

This is not to say that this renders the use of UAVs unethical, but it does raise an issue that policy makers do not seem to consider.


Footnotes

  1. Shane, “The Enduring Influence of Anwar al-Awlaki in the Age of the Islamic State.”
  2. Executive Order 12333 United States Intelligence Activities
  3. Slick, S. “Modernizing the IC “Charter”: The 2008 Amendments to Executive Order 12333, United States Intelligence Activities”.
  4. Strawser, “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles.”
  5. Zegart, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence

Bibliography

Shane, S. “The Enduring Influence of Anwar al-Awlaki in the Age of the Islamic State.” CTC Sentinel (9) No. 7, July 2016. Retrieved 28 June 2024 from https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-enduring-influence-of-anwar-al-awlaki-in-the-age-of-the-islamic-state/

Slick, S. “Modernizing the IC “Charter”: The 2008 Amendments to Executive Order 12333, United States Intelligence Activities”. Studies in Intelligence (58), No. 2 (Extracts, June 2014). Retrieved 27 June 2024 from https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/2008-Amendments-Executive-Order.pdf

Strawser, B. “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles.” Journal of Military Ethics 9 no. 4, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2010.536403

“Executive Order 12333 United States Intelligence Activities” Code of Federal Regulations. Retrieved 27 June 2024 from https://dpcld.defense.gov/Portals/49/Documents/Civil/eo-12333-2008.pdf

Zegart, A. Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. Princeton University Press, 2022.

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Review of Strawser’s "Moral Predators"

Historical Introduction

Remote-controlled weapons are not a new technology: the Soviets used “teletanks” – radio-controlled tanks with a range of just under a mile – during the Winter War, and the Nazis experimented with the “Goliath tracked mine” during World War II that had a similar range. Going back further, in World War I the Germans developed the “Ferlenkboot” - remote controlled boats with a range of approximately 12 miles – for use against British ships in the English Channel and off the coast of Flanders.

Three aspects make contemporary unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) different from these other unmanned weapons: first, the pilot of a UAV can be on the other side of Earth from the UAV itself; second, they are a proven and effective weapon system; third, they were developed and are heavily used by the United States. This last difference is the main reason why UAVs have drawn the attention of just war theorists – notice the lack of outcry over the suicide drone boats used by Iran and Houthi rebels.

In his 2010 paper “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles”1, Bradley Jay Strawser argues that there is nothing wrong in principle with the use of UAVs, and in fact their use should be obligatory. He explains the “obligatory” part as being a duty, but later in the paper2 he provides a better explanation. To explain why UAVs are not wrong in principle, he addresses six objections that can be made to their use.

A General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, armed with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, piloted by Lt. Col. Scott Miller on a combat mission over southern Afghanistan. (U.S. Air Force Photo / Lt. Col. Leslie Pratt)

Objections Addressed by Strawser

The first objection is that the adoption of UAVs will lead to fully autonomous weapons, or what Strawser calls IAWs (independent autonomous weapons); IAWs are morally impermissible; therefore, UAV development is impermissible. Strawser raises this issue to delimit the scope of his paper strictly to “human-in-the-loop” or “human-on-the-loop” weapon systems and avoid “human-out-of-the-loop” systems. He rejects this argument because there is no proof that development of UAVs necessarily leads to IAWs, and that it is possible to continue UAV development and usage while banning IAW development – which he recommends Western nations do3.

The second objection is that UAVs lead to violations of the jus in bello Principle of Discrimination, the idea being that poor-quality or unreliable video feeds would limit the ability of the pilot to discriminate between combatant and non-combatant. This is a limitation that currently is not true, and he quotes statistics showing that, in comparison to conventional forces, UAVs resulted in far fewer noncombatant deaths relative to combatant deaths. Further, by flying at lower altitudes than manned aircraft, more accurate targeting is to be expected. Finally, Strawser notes that the manufacturer of a missile designed for use on UAVs has achieved “urban warfare precision,” and that the missile is controlled after it has been launched (“fire, observe, and update” as opposed to “fire and forget”).

It mustn’t be forgotten that UAVs are still piloted vehicles, their pilots are just not aboard them. This can lead, so the third objection goes, to cognitive dissonance on the part of UAV operators. The pilot can “kill the enemy from their ‘desk’ at work and then go home to dinner and their child’s soccer match,” and this somehow places unnecessary psychological stress on the pilot. In addition, since the pilot can view his profession as a video game, this would lead to either “weakening the operator’s will to fight” or lead to frequent violations of the Principle of Discrimination.

Strawser responds to this by noting that since the pilot is in no personal danger, the temptation to commit jus in bello violations is lessened. Also, the pilot can evaluate the target before firing. All UAV action can be recorded and monitored, and this provides an additional layer of accountability: “an entire team of officers and human rights lawyers could oversee every single lethal decision made by a UAV.” Finally, UAV-pilot-specific cognitive dissonance can be lessened by moving the pilot in-theater.

The fourth objection raised is that targeted killings (assassinations) fall outside the bounds of acceptable Just War Theory4, and UAVs somehow make the practice too easy. The issue here, Strawser notes, is one of policy and not the technology. There are three adjacent concerns: sovereignty issues, “ignoble warfare,” and the extent that UAVs make assassinations easy.

The first corollary is really a legal issue – lawyers can argue that sending UAVs into another country’s airspace is not the same a sending manned airplane or an agent – and is not relevant to most drone strikes. The third concern (that UAVs make assassinations not only possible but easy), is not a strike against UAVs themselves but rather their usage.

The second corollary concern – that using UAVs constitutes a form of “ignoble warfare” – is perhaps the most interesting objection one can make. Strawser states this objection in full as follows: “the battle for the ‘hearts and minds’ of local nationals in a given theater is significantly worsened by what they view as ignoble warfare; UAVs are thought to be ‘cowardly.’”

“So be it,” Strawser responds. He should have stopped there, but he goes on to admit that if studies prove that the winning of ‘hearts and minds’ is indeed made more difficult, then UAVs should not be used.

Strawser’s fifth objection is that UAVs create an unjust asymmetry in combat, in that “one side literally does not take any life-or-death risks whatsoever (or nearly so, since its warfighters are not even present in the primary theater of combat) whereas the opposing side carries all the risk of combat.” His response (except for subsequent over-analysis) is perhaps the strongest part of this paper:

[T]here is no chivalrous reason for a just combatant to ‘equal the playing field’ or ‘fight fair.’ If combatant A fights under a just cause, while combatant B fights for an unjust cause, combatant A owes nothing to combatant B by way of exposing his/herself to some minimal threshold of risk. Thus, it is right for combatant A to reduce the risk in an engagement with the unjust enemy.

The sixth and final objection Strawser addresses is that UAVs lower the jus ad bellum threshold, in that UAVs improve the likelihood of success. This objection is falls in the same way that the fifth objection falls. There is nothing special here about the use of UAVs: any difference in technology between two enemy nations would be exploited to increase the probability of success of any military action.

Two Further Objections

Two additional objections, not addressed by Strawser, can be made to the use of UAVs.

Objection: UAVs are strictly a rich nation’s weapon5.

Response: This is simply not the case. Ukraine (though certainly not a poor nation thanks to American taxpayer support) is effectively utilizing off-the shelf commercially available drones in their war against Russia. These drones do not cost a fortune but can be obtained for at most a few hundred dollars each.

Objection: the drone pilot’s location is… problematic.

Response: At some point, the range of American artillery exceeded that of an enemy’s. Does this mean that the enemy surrenders without a fight? No: the enemy will simply attack from a position so close that the use of our artillery would be prohibitive because of the likelihood of harming our own troops.

Now consider what an enemy would do when facing off against a UAV system. There are at least four points of attack: the drone itself, the takeoff and landing site(s) of the drone, the communication system controlling the drone, and the drone’s pilot. Just as in the case of the artillery, the enemy will move close to attack. This means that the pilot is a legitimate target. In the case of drones, though, the pilot could be located within the United States. Thus, there is a legitimate target within our own borders. This is not to say that this renders the use of UAVs unethical, but it does raise an issue that policy makers do not seem to consider.

Conclusions

As with any weapons system, the use of UAVs introduces a range of problems. This is exemplified by the 30 September 2011 drone strike that killed terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki. Al-Awlaki was an American citizen; he was killed while in Yemen; the drone strike was a CIA operation; and the pilot was located at the Creech Air Force Base outside Los Vegas, Nevada6.

Strawser separates the legal, political, and technological problems raised by incidents like that, and instead focuses on the ethical problems associated with UAVs. He considers the use of UAVs in the framework of Just War Theory and finds that by themselves, UAVs do not alter the justness of unjustness of either a war or an action taken during that war.


Footnotes

  1. Bradley Strawser, “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles.”
  2. See Strawser’s response to the fifth objection, below.
  3. Does he also recommend non-Western nations ban the development of IAWs, too?
  4. A person holding a “Realist War Theory” would not subscribe to that position.
  5. This wording is used at the start of Simpson & Müller “Just War and Robot’s Killings.”
  6. Amy Zegart, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms.

Bibliography

Simpson, T. & Müller, V. “Just War and Robot’s Killings.” The Philosophical Quarterly (1950-) 66 no. 263, April 2016. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24672810

Strawser, B. “Moral Predators: The Duty to Employ Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles.” Journal of Military Ethics 9 no. 4, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2010.536403

Zegart, A. Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. Princeton University Press, 2022.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

The Mexican War and World War I on the Conflict Continuum

Introduction

Joint Publications 3-0 Joint Operations includes a framework1 for understanding both the varieties of miliary and military/civil operations as well as the phases of such operations. The foundation of this framework is the “conflict continuum”, the realization that peace and war aren’t the only two possible relations that can exist between nation-states, that other relations are possible, such as crisis response, security cooperation, etc. The purpose of this paper is to look at the Mexican-American War and World War I through this framework.

We begin with an explanation of manifest destiny, and how this policy drove the United States and Mexico into conflict. For purposes of evaluating the Mexican-American War along the conflict continuum, a history of that war is supplied.

A similar approach is taken with World War I: the history of WWI prior to our declaration of war is given, the reasons for our involvement are explained, and a brief description of the way we worked with the Allies is explained.

Next, the conflict continuum itself is described, including the phases a military operation moves through from beginning to end, and some of the examples of not-strictly combat operations are given. The Mexican-American War and World War I are then evaluated using this knowledge of the conflict continuum to classify the two wars and the phases they went through.

The concluding section recaps how these two wars demonstrate some of the finer points of JP 3-0, as well as a certain “slipperiness” in the shaping phase.

The Mexican-American War

In the mid 19th century, a belief called “manifest destiny” became an informal American foreign policy2. Advocated by various journalists and newspaper editors and adopted by certain politicians, manifest destiny called for the spread of freedom and American ideals westward through various means, including territorial acquisition. This is the context underlying US-Mexican diplomatic relations at the time and in part lead to the Mexican-American War.

Mexican territorial claims relinquished in the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo and the Gadsden Purchase

The Mexican War started3 over a dispute about the location of Texas’s border, and by extension the southern American border. The Republic of Texas declared its independence from Mexico in 1836 and joined the United States on 29 December 1845, becoming the 28th state. Mexico did not recognize Texas’ succession, and so when it became a member of the Union, we inherited the ongoing border dispute.

Again, where was Texas’ southern border? Mexico claimed the border should be the Nueces River, whereas America believed the border should be south of that, at the Rio Grande.

President James Polk offered to purchase4 the land north of the Rio Grande and west of Texas all the way to the Pacific Ocean for $25 million, but Mexico refused – Mexico was undergoing internal rebellions at the time, so it may not have been possible to accept payment.

To pressure Mexico to accept the purchase, Polk dispatched Pacific Squadron ships to blockade Mexico along the California coast and the Home Squadron to blockade Mexico’s Gulf coast. He also sent troops into the disputed Texas territory under the command of General Zachary Taylor.

On 25 April 1846, Mexican cavalry attacked Taylor’s troops. The Mexicans then attacked American forts on the Rio Grande. Taylor called for reinforcements and were able to defeat the Mexicans in the Battle of Palo Alto and the Battle of Resaca de la Palma. Polk lost all patience with Mexico at that point, and on 13 May of that year, Congress declared war.

While Taylor worked south, General Stephen Watts Kearny entered what would later be called New Mexico and captured Santa Fe without encountering any Mexican military forces. On 25 September 1846, Kearny left New Mexico under civilian government (with military support) and set out for California.

As this was happening, the Pacific Squadron received orders to blockade San Francisco Bay. Command of the squadron was transferred to Commodore Robert F. Stockton, and continuing south, his land forces entered Los Angeles without encountering opposing forces.

Kearny’s march continued. He crossed the Colorado River and engaged Mexican forces at the Battle of San Pasqual in modern-day California on 6 December 1846. He was trapped in a defensive position until American relief forces arrived. Kearny was then able to complete his march to Los Angeles.

On 8 January 1847, Kearny’s and Stockton’s forces engaged the Mexicans at the Battle of Rio San Gabriel. The Mexicans retreated and the next day they fought again at the Battle of La Mesa. The Mexicans were defeated, and this led to the Treaty of Cahuenga. This treaty ended the conflict in California but fighting continued south of Texas.

Zachary Taylor’s army continued into Mexico which led to Battle of Rio Monterrey on 21-24 September 1846. This was an urban battle (our first urban warfare experience since the Revolutionary War5), and we were defeated. An armistice was declared, but under orders from Washington, Taylor broke the armistice and continued marching south. He encountered General Antonio López de Santa Anna at Puerto de la Angostura. The resulting battle, the Battle of Buena Vista, lasted for two days, from 22-23 February 1847. Santa Anna retreated to Mexico City to put down an insurrection in Mexico City.

By this time, President Polk realized that occupying northern Mexico was insufficient to get Mexico agree to the purchase. An invasion of the Mexican interior was necessary. To this end, General Winfield Scott arrived off Veracruz by sea to begin the invasion on 9 March 1847. Scott performs first major amphibious landing in US history6 as part of the Siege of Veracruz. Mexican forces surrendered.

Scott then marched westward towards Mexico City. Santa Anna set up a defensive line close to Veracruz, but Scott sent cavalry ahead. The two forces met on 18 April 1847, and the Battle of Cerro Gordo ensued. Santa Anna again retreated to Mexico City with Scott laying chase.

Scott arrived at Mexico City and after defeating Mexican forces at the Battle of Contreras and the Battle of Churubusco (both ending on 20 August 1847), peace negotiations began. Negotiations broke down on 6 September 1947, however. In response, Scott fought additional battles (the Battle of Molino del Rey and Battle of Chapultepec) which led to the storming of the city gates and the capture of Mexico City.

The war ended on 2 February 1848 with the signing of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo. This treaty gave us control not only over Texas to the Rio Grande, most of New Mexico, and all of California and Utah, but also parts of Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming. In return, Mexico received $15 million, approximately half of Polk’s original offer7.

The remainder of Arizona and New Mexico were purchased in 1854 from Mexico for $10 million. With this purchase, called the Gadsden Purchase, the current position of the US southern border was established.

World War I

Nothing as grandiose as manifest destiny drove us into World War I. Rather our involvement was the result of an accumulation of events that included threats to maritime traffic, possible collusion between Mexico and the Central Powers, as well as ensuring the repayment of loans made to France, Britain, and Italy8.

The “Great War” was preceded by the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the throne of Austria-Hungary, and his wife on 28 June 1914 by a Serbian political activist while they were in Sarajevo. This led to the July Crisis, a series of military escalations and diplomatic incidents among the major European powers, which led to Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia on 28 July 1914, marking the start of World War I. By August of that year, Austria-Hungary, Germany, Serbia, Great Britain, France, and Russia as well as Japan were at war. The Ottoman Empire entered the war on the side of the Central Powers on 31 October 1914, and Italy joined the Allied Powers on 23 May 1915.

Before Italy joined, war spread to European colonies, with Britain invading German East Africa on 3-5 November 1914. This battle, The Battle of Tanga (also called “The Battle of the Bees”) marked the beginning of Lieutenant Colonel Paul Emil von Lettow-Vorbeck’s African campaign9.

The United States attempted to stay militarily neutral while continuing economic trade with France, Britain, and Italy. In addition, American bankers made loans those nations. Early events in the war, especially the sinking of the RMS Lusitania by a German U-boat on 7 May 1915 resulting in the loss of 128 American lives, foretold that the United States would not be able to maintain neutrality10.

There were three events that lead America to enter the war on the side of the Entente: Germany’s breaking of the Sussex Pledge, the increasing likelihood that the Central Powers would be victorious, and the Zimmerman Telegram.

Following the sinking of several civilian vessels by German naval vessels early in the war, Germany issued the Sussex Pledge to the US on 4 May 1916. In this pledge, Germany made the following changes to its rules of naval engagement: passenger ships would not be targeted; merchant vessels would not be attacked unless inspection showed the presence of weapons; and merchant vessels would not be targeted unless those aboard could be rescued.

Eight months later, over the objections of the German Chancellor, the German navy convinced military leaders and Kaiser Wilhelm II that unrestricted submarine warfare could be used to defeat the Entente before the US entered the war11. The Pledge was thus rescinded in January 1917.

The February 1917 Revolution in Russia indicated that due to political instability, Russia’s continued participation in the war could not be guaranteed. Russia was wavering, and the odds of the Central Powers winning increased. If they won, then the European Allies would (presumably) be unable to repay the loans that American bankers made to them.

Indeed, the October 1917 Revolution and the subsequent Civil War led to the Bolsheviks obtaining power. Vladimir Lenin signed a peace treaty with the Central Powers, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, on 3 March 1918. With Russia no longer involved, Germany turned its attention to France and Great Britian.

In January 1917, Britain intercepted and decoded a telegram sent from the German Foreign Minister Arthur Zimmermann to the German Minister to Mexico, offering US territory to Mexico should the enter war on the side of the Central Powers. The British then sent the telegram to the United States on 24 February. It was made available to the American public on 1 March12.

On 6 April 1917, two years and eight months following the outbreak of war, the United States entered World War I on the side of the Allies. The first parts of the American Expeditionary Force (AEF) arrived in June 1917 and continued to arrive over the next four months.

At this point in the war, the Allies and Central Powers were at a stalemate: 430 miles of trenches were dug between France and Germany, running from the North Sea and the Swiss border, and those trenches mostly remained fixed for over two years. This was well illustrated by the Battle of Verdun, lasting from 21 February to 18 December 1916, making it the longest battle of the war, and by the end there was little change in positions of the lines. Despite the use of chemical weapons, tanks, and aerial bombings, the Western Front remained in a deadlock, with neither side able to gain and hold territory.

The question then became how the US military would break this stalemate.

French and British military leaders initially wanted American forces to supplement the Allied ranks in a policy called “amalgamation”, essentially turning them into cannon fodder. General John J. Pershing, commander of the AEF, objected, refusing to allow his troops to be under the command of non-Americans13. Further, he rejected trench warfare and insisted on using “open warfare” which would capitalize on American mobility, aggressiveness, and marksmanship. Pershing did permit AEF troops to train with the French, however, before going into combat.

General John J. Pershing

Pershing’s requirement that American warriors operate under a completely American chain of command became a staple of future joint operations: Americans would fight alongside foreign troops, not under them.

As the AEF continued to arrive, larger and larger military operations were executed, culminating in the Meuse-Argonne Offensive. This was the largest operation of the war, the goal of which was to evict German troops from France by attacking them along the entire Western Front. The battle began on 26 September 1918 and continued for 47 days. Pershing rotated his troops not only to maintain their strength but also so they could train incoming troops. In November, Americans advanced as fast as logistics allowed, at one point even advancing off the AEF headquarters’ maps.

The Meuse-Argonne Offensive ended when news of the Armistice arrived on 11 November 1918. This marked the end of World War I.

Fitting Those Wars into the Conflict Continuum

JP 3-0 explains that military conflict occurs on a “spectrum” or “continuum” with peace at one side and war at the other. This is of fundamental importance, as the authors of JP 3-0 are rejecting the idea that peace and war are the only two conditions that can exist between nations and other actors14. This idea is expanded in two ways: first, a joint operations model - an analysis of the progression of events as nations move about this continuum; second, a listing of some types of military operations that can include conflict but can also include military operations other than war (MOOTW).

The joint operation model15 describes how the United States and Partner Nations (PN) can prepare for conflict, conduct conflict, then end a conflict. There are six phases in the model:

Shape – activities to set the conditions for successful in-theater operations; shaping activities are primarily political (e.g. coalition building, securing overfly and navigation rights) but can also include multinational training exercises, intelligence sharing, etc.

Deter - Prevents adversaries (traditional, non-state actors, etc.) from either creating or capitalizing on a crisis.

Seize Initiative - Utilize all capabilities as early as possible to delay, impede, or halt enemy's initial aggression and prevent him from achieving his initial objectives. Ideas is to expand freedom of action of friendly forces (by, e.g. accessing and controlling infrastructure in theater) as well as degrading enemy's capabilities with the goal of resolving the crisis as soon as possible.

Dominate - Break enemy's will to resist by overmatching enemy's capabilities at critical times and places.

Stabilize - (Re)establish a secure environment, which can include (re)building infrastructure.

Enable Civil Authority - Support legitimate governance following conflict.

This six-stage model can be applied to other types of operations, including humanitarian assistance operations. Additional phases may be added depending on the type of operation, and it is the JFC that sets criteria for the transition between phases16.

The conflict continuum can also include MOOTW, and JP 3-0 provides examples of these types, including noncombatant evacuation, foreign internal defense, counterdrug operations, and so on17. It is possible for an operation to move between these types: for example, the Afghanistan War began as a military engagement, then transformed to a combination of counterinsurgency and defense support of civil authorities.

Of the examples of military operations and activities listed in JP 3-0, the Mexican-American War would count as a military engagement. The shaping phase included Polk’s initial offer to purchase the territory is described above. The blockade established along Mexico’s Gulf and California coasts as well as the placement of troops south of the Nueces River constituted the deter phase. Seizing initiative and domination phases are the parts where Taylor moved south of the Nueces River, Kearny’s march into California, and Winfield Scott’s amphibious landing and march to Mexico City.

Kearny’s activities in New Mexico demonstrate both stabilization (his initial establishment of a military government in Santa Fa) and the enabling of civil authority (leaving a civilian government in place along with military support).

With the capture of Mexico City, Scott “imposed martial law, maintaining order through an even-handed policy that treated U.S. troops and the Mexican populace equally.18” This would count as stabilization. It isn’t clear how the Unites States enabled civilian authority, though perhaps the final payment of $15 million helped in that regard.

World War I was different in that we were not involved in the conflict until 32 months after it started. Although for us it was certainly a large-scale combat operation, we initially played a supporting role until AEF arrived in full and found its stride. So, while we were not present at the beginning, the Allies (PNs) were. Thus, the shape and deter phases were performed (or, rather, not performed) by the Allies. Our entrance was at the dominate phase. Following the end of hostilities, our participation became one of foreign humanitarian assistance, with the American Relief Administration19 providing massive amounts of relief supplies to Europe.

Conclusion

The two wars examined in this paper help to illuminate both the breadth and some of the subtilities of the conflict continuum framework given in JP 3-0.

Unlike WWI, the Mexican-American War was not a joint operation. JP 3-0 is still applicable though; the war was a joint operation where there were no partner nations – it was a coalition of one.

WWI demonstrated that in a joint operation, the United States need not be an active participant of every phase of conflict – it is sufficient that at least one PN engages in a given phase and passes the results on to the other members of the coalition. We entered that war over two years after it started, and we had to build upon the work the other partner nations either completed or were in process of completing.

As WWI ended, what was a large-scale combat operation became a humanitarian operation, showing that it is possible for a military operation or activity to change type as events unfold.

WWI also demonstrated the need for establishing a clear chain of command among partner nations, and that this chain of command must not result in an American service member being under command of a non-American coalition member. Pershing was adamant in this, and this prevented American troops from being used to prolong the stalemate instead of acting decisively to bring the war to a conclusion.

Finally, a certain ambiguity in the conflict continuum must be identified. According to JP 3-0, “shaping activities help set conditions for successful theater operations,” and that in the best case, “shaping activities may avert or diminish conflict.” The preparations President Polk made prior to the start of the Mexican-American war can technically be called shaping activities, but instead of either preventing war or helping ensure that operations are successful, Polk’s shaping operations became a threat20, and the price of ignoring that threat was war. 


Footnotes

  1. Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations, V-1 to V-20 and VI-1 to VI-4.
  2. Millett, et. al., For the Common Defense.
  3. Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond.
  4. Stenberg, “The Failure of Polk's Mexican War Intrigue of 1845.”
  5. Carney, “Gateway South: the Campaign for Monterrey.”
  6. Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond.
  7. Stenberg, “The Failure of Polk's Mexican War Intrigue of 1845.”
  8. Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond.
  9. Gaudi, African Kaiser.
  10. Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond includes a discussion of why neutrality is not in general possible. This warrants a one-word response: Switzerland.
  11. Bridgeland, Outrage at Sea.
  12. Millett, et. al., For the Common Defense.
  13. Ibid.
  14. It is not clear whether “grey zone” activities could be included in the continuum. See Robinson, “The Missing, Irregular Half of Great Power Competition.”
  15. Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations, V-7 to V-11.
  16. Ibid, V-12 to V-14.
  17. Ibid, V-2 to V-4 and V-4 to V-5.
  18. UTA Libraries, “Winfield Scott.”
  19. Patenaude, "A Race against Anarchy.”
  20. Stenberg, “The Failure of Polk's Mexican War Intrigue of 1845.”

Bibliography

Bridgeland, T. Outrage at Sea: Naval Atrocities in the First World War. Pen and Sword Books, 2002.

Carney, S. “Gateway South: the Campaign for Monterrey.” U.S. Army Campaigns of the Mexican War. Retrieved 25 June 2024 from https://history.army.mil/brochures/the%20campaign%20for%20monterrey/the%20campaign%20for%20monterrey.htm

Gaudi, R. African Kaiser: General Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck and the Great War in Africa, 1914-1918. Dutton Caliber, 2017.

Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations, 22 October 2018.

Millett, A. R., Maslowski, P., & Feis, W. B. For the Common Defense: A Military History of the Unites States from 1607 to 2012. 3rd ed. Free Press, 2012.

Patenaude, B. "A Race against Anarchy: Even after the Great War ended, famine and chaos threatened Europe. Herbert Hoover rescued the continent, reviving trade, rebuilding infrastructure, and restoring economic order, holding a budding Bolshevism in check." Hoover Digest 2, 2020, pp. 183-200. Retrieved 25 June 2024 from https://www.hoover.org/research/race-against-anarchy

Robinson, E. “The Missing, Irregular Half of Great Power Competition.” Modern War Institute at West Point, 8 September 2020. Retrieved 25 June 2024 from https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-missing-irregular-half-of-great-power-competition/

Snow, D. & Drew, D. From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond: War and Politics in the American Experience. 3rd ed. Routledge, 2009.

Stenberg, R. “The Failure of Polk's Mexican War Intrigue of 1845.” Pacific Historical Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, March 1935, pp. 39-68. https://doi.org/10.2307/3633243

UTA Libraries. “Winfield Scott.” A Continent Divided: The U.S. – Mexico War. N/D. Retrieved 25 June 2024 from https://libraries.uta.edu/usmexicowar/node/4877

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Crime and Transport Availability

Urban planners and civil engineers, when not bemoaning American "car culture," tacitly assume that transportation is an unlimited good - the more accessible transportation is, the better. Is it really, though?

There's some evidence showing this is not the case. Cash Jordan, an NYC resident and YouTube videographer, recently compared (Cash Jordan, 2024) two malls in Lower Manhattan. One of them, the Fulton Center Mall, is on the verge of closing, while the other, the Oculus Mall, is thriving. The proximal difference is the level of crime at the two locations, but the ultimate difference is due to transportation accessibility.

The Oculus Mall located at the WTC in Lower Manhattan.

The Fulton Center Mall is built around the busiest MTA subway station in Lower Manhattan, and the shopping experience was an “add on” to the station – the mall was built where people get on and off the subway. The mall is in the process of closing after most of the shops there left due to the large amount of retail theft (Manna, 2024), and the shoplifters are using the subway or the exits to the streets to make their getaways (Cash Jordan, 2024). The mall itself is policed by the NYPD, and the subway is policed by the NYPD and the NY National Guard.

Meanwhile, the Oculus Mall, located close to the World Trade Center, is built adjacent to a subway station. The retail experience is the primary purpose of the mall, and there are fewer ways for shoplifters to either escape to the subway or to the street. And, since the subway at that station also serves New Jersey, it is secured by the Port Authority Police, which is better funded and staffed than the NYPD. Crime is not common at all in the Oculus, and the mall is thriving.

Jordan attributes the difference to several factors – that the Oculus caters to “high end” customers, that there are different policing agencies, etc. – but he argues that the main difference is the accessibility of transportation at those two malls: getting to the subway or to the street is more difficult at the Oculus than at Fulton Center, thus making the Oculus a less tempting target.

 

References

Cash Jordan. (24 March 2024). It Begins… Entire NYC Mall Closes Over Theft [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRiHBs62jfE

Manna, V. (12 March 2024). “Westfield says crime is forcing it to break lease at Fulton Transit Center.” Spectrum News NY1. Retrieved on 21 June 2024 from https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2024/03/13/westfield-says-crime-is-forcing-it-to-break-lease-at-fulton-transit-center

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Interagency/Intergovernmental Operations: WWII vs Vietnam

Introduction

In comparing World War II and the Vietnam War as presented in Snow & Drew[1] and Guttieri, Franke, & Civic[2], one is struck by differences between the way government agencies and whole governments interacted in those two wars. The primary difference was that in WWII, major friction took place between the Allied governments, whereas in the Vietnam War the friction was between US military and civilian agencies. The histories of these rivalries is explained and some theories for their origins are proposed.

World War II

With WWII, the interactions between the Allies were represented by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin. FDR and Churchill had frequent clashes over operations in the European theater. The location and timing of the invasion of the European continent was a serious point of contention between them: Churchill wanted to retake France early in the war, FDR wanted to knock Italy out of the war first. After that, the question of how the retaking of France was to be organized[3].

Running in parallel with this was the uneven trust between FDR, Churchill, and Stalin. Winston Churchill deeply mistrusted Stalin[4], fearing that once Germany was conquered, the Soviets would continue unchecked into Europe[5]. Meanwhile, FDR was much more trusting of Stalin, which can be attributed to FDR’s very strong socialist leanings. In the end, the Soviets indeed did control European nations, not through conquest but through negotiations: as part of the Yalta Conference, Soviets were given control of Eastern Germany, Poland, and other countries behind the “iron curtain.”

FDR, Churchill, and Stalin at the Yalta Conference, February 1945.

Vietnam War

In Vietnam, the Americans originally acted in support of the French military in their colonies in French Indochina. French presence was being reduced following France’s defeat in the First Indochina War (1946 – 1954), and while this was happening, communists were consolidating control in the north of Vietnam. The 1954 Geneva Conference used the 17th Parallel to separate North Vietnam from South Vietnam.

America’s role in South Vietnam changed over the years[6], ranging from participating as advisors to full blown combat. One of the early goals was to rebuild the (South) Vietnamese Army, as implemented by the National Security Division of the Training Relations and Instruction Mission. Civilian agencies were not seriously involved in this.

Civilian agencies began playing a serious role in 1955, with the United States Operations Mission (USOM) insisting that the industrial areas of South Vietnam receive aid and that the rural areas be ignored. The rural areas were thus abandoned militarily and economically, and they were alienated by the corrupt and authoritarian Ngô Đình Diệm government. From 1957 to 1960, the Vietcong insurgency began to organize in the rural areas. Diệm did not respond to this, and neither did the American military and civilian agencies, which were acting in an uncoordinated manner.

The Kennedy Administration took notice of the growing presence of the Vietcong and began a process called “pacification.” There was disagreement on the meaning of that term: Secretary of Defense McNamara and the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) interpreted pacification to mean the use of conventional military force against the Vietcong. Meanwhile, the CIA and US Army Special Forces understood pacification to mean the standing-up of irregular forces among the rural Vietnamese[7], akin to modern counterinsurgency tactics[8].

McNamara’s interpretation resulted in Vietnamese Army units conducting attrition (“search and destroy”) operations, akin to World War II tactics. This had the effect of alienating many Vietnamese civilians against the Americans.

In 1962, the Kennedy Administration shifted to involve civilian aid programs in counterinsurgency. Tri-partite committees were established in each province, consisting of a Vietnamese province chief, a representative of the USOM, and an advisor from MAAG. These committees monitored the distribution and usage of funds and were involved in hamlet construction as well as training of hamlet militia.

Operations at the hamlet level were not coordinated with top levels of the Military Assistance Command Vietnam (MACV), which meant the Vietnamese Army and US air support frequently operated at odds with the hamlets, endangering the safety and security of the population.

Two military coups (November 1963 and January 1964) resulted in an interruption in the strategic hamlet program until June 1964, when the program resumed.

The tripartite provincial committees were officially abandoned in the fall of 1964, and Americans began working with the central government in Vietnam, insisting that aid be ran through Saigon instead of directly to the hamlets, The tripartite committees eventually all dissolved.

American troops were deployed to Vietnam in 1965, placing pacification operations under the military. The American civilian agencies (USAID, State Department, CIA, etc.) objected to the Defense Department being placed in control, and the Defense Department refused to have any advisor operations under civilian command.

The Pentagon prevailed, and pacification operations were placed under MACV. A new agency, the Office of Civil Operations and Rural Support (CORDS), was created in May 1967, and MACV was placed under CORDS. The result was that two chain of command ran through MACV (one civilian and one military).

Somehow, almost all rural areas of South Vietnam were pacificated by 1971, but the North Vietnamese added conventional military forces to the Vietcong, crossing the 17th Parallel in the 1972 Easter Offensive. The North Vietnamese were defeated by the Vietnamese army and US air support. Later, as American forces were withdrawing in 1975, the North Vietnamese overran the South.

Conclusion

In comparing the interagency and intergovernmental operations of those two wars, operations between the American, British, and Soviet governments were not nearly as fractious as were the operations between U.S. civil and military agencies.

The conflicts between FDR, Churchill, and Stalin can be explained through the two reasons addressed above: they had different strategies for defeating the enemy, and Churchill and Stalin had diametrically opposed political beliefs.

There are several explanations for all the conflict during the Vietnam War: first, the United States went through five presidential administrations (Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ, Nixon, and Ford) during that conflict. Second, the civilian agencies were seen as co-equal to the military agencies and that lead to interagency rivalry. Third, both civilian and military agencies had competing strategies for defeating the communists: US Army Special Forces and the CIA wanted to take a “bottom up” approach, establishing counterinsurgent guerrillas and hamlet militias, whereas JCS and the other civilian agencies used a “top down” approach, carrying out attrition-style  “pacification” operations, taking responsibility for defeating the Vietcong with the idea of handing the country over to the Vietnamese people once the communists were eliminated.

Footnotes

[1] Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond.

[2] Guttieri, Franke, & Civic (Eds), Understanding Complex Military Operations

[3] Snow & Drew, From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond, Ch. 5.

[4] Daniels, “’Favourable Reference to the Devil’: Why Churchill Allied with Stalin.”

[5] Folly, Roberts, & Rzheshevsky, Churchill and Stalin.

[6] Outline of the history is based upon Phillips, R. “CORDS campaign of pacification” found in Guttieri, Franke & Civic (Eds). Understanding Complex Military Operations

[7] Kelly, Vietnam Studies: U.S. Army Special Forces 1961-1971.

[8] Seals, “MACV-SOG History.”

Bibliography

Daniels, C. “’Favourable Reference to the Devil’: Why Churchill Allied with Stalin.” Churchill Project of Hillsdale College, 26 June 2021. Retrieved 13 June 2024 from https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/alliance-stalin/

Folly, M., Roberts, G., & Rzheshevsky, O. Churchill and Stalin: Comrades-in-Arms during the Second World War. Pen and Sword Military, 8 February 2020.

Guttieri, K., Franke, V., & Civic, M. (Eds). Understanding Complex Military Operations: A Case Study Approach. Routledge, 2014.

Kelly, F. Vietnam Studies: U.S. Army Special Forces 1961-1971. Department of the Army, 2004. Retrieved 13 June 2024 from https://history.army.mil/html/books/090/90-23-1/CMH_Pub_90-23-1.pdf

Seals, R. “MACV-SOG History.” USASOC History Office, 25 January 2019. Retrieved 13 June 2024 from https://www.army.mil/article/216498/macv_sog_history

Snow, D. & Drew, D. From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond: War and Politics in the American Experience. 3rd ed. Routledge, 2009.

Monday, June 10, 2024

Coalition Building in the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars

Introduction

Wars are frequently multinational operations, extremely complex operations involving standardizing communication systems, hiring translators, establishing both national and international chains of commands1, and so on. Fundamental to this is the diplomatic work to build coalitions. The coalition President George H. W. Bush assembled to liberate Kuwait came together relatively easy during the buildup to the Gulf War. President George W. Bush was able to rapidly assemble a multinational operation for prosecution of the Afghanistan War, but he encountered difficulties in forming what would be called the Multi-National Force - Iraq (MNF-I), popularly called the "Coalition of the Willing." This paper compares the assembly of the coalitions for both the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars and attempts to identify the ways the younger Bush was able to overcome the difficulties in forming the MNF-I.

The history of our involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq are extremely relevant to explaining the difference in effort needed to build the two MNFs, perhaps as important as the jus ad bellum (reasons for declaring war) for both conflicts. For this reason, the historical context for both wars is provided. Following this, the usual factors that a potential member of an MNF must consider before committing are examined. Finally, the ways that the Bush Administration used to grow MNF-I are described, along with the embarrassments they generated.

Colin Powell at the UN.

Historical Background of the Afghanistan War

During Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (24 December 1979 - 15 February 1989), the United States via the Central Intelligence Agency supported the Afghan Mujahideen resistance fighters, as did Pakistan, Iran, the UK, and the Arab Gulf States. The Soviets withdrew following the signing of the US-brokered 1988 Geneva Accords, but they left in place a Soviet-backed regime led by Mohammad Najibullah. Thus, the war to rid Afghanistan of communism continued, but now it was a civil war.

Najibullah was ousted in 1992 and was replaced by the Mujahideen. This lasted until September 1996 when the Mujahideen were in turn replaced by the Taliban, an Islamic group primarily composed of Pashtun Afghans, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.

A new civil war then started between the Pashtun (represented by the Taliban) and the other ethnic groups (represented by the Northern Alliance). While this war raged, foreign fighters entered the country, most importantly Al Qaida led by Osama Bin Laden, and they began using Afghanistan as a base of operations.

Al Qaeda bombed two US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania on 7 April 1998, and on 12 October 2000 they attacked the USS Cole while docked in a Yemeni port. Bin Laden was now considered an international terrorist threat, and the US demands his extradition. The Taliban refused, and the UN imposed economic sanctions in response.

Shortly following the September 11th terrorist attacks, Bin Laden was determined to be the culprit and again America demand extradition. The Taliban again refused to hand him over. This meant that Afghanistan was not only harboring known terrorists, but the Taliban became an impediment to the capture or destruction of Al Qaeda members.

The political objectives of the US-led forces were the capture or destruction of Al Qaeda and the destruction of the Taliban. While the latter was not necessary to achieve the former, it was felt that ousting the Taliban from power would allow US-led forces to gain support of the Northern Alliance, prevent Al Qaeda from reconstituting itself, and serve as an object lesson to other nations of the price of harboring or supporting terrorists.

The ultimate strategy for the War in Afghanistan was to use high tech weapons (UAVs and guided missiles) together with Special Forces to defeat the Taliban2, and to use a small number of conventional forces to search for Al Qaeda. This plan overcame two problems with the location and geography of Afghanistan: the "tyranny of political geography" and the "tyranny of topography," which made Afghanistan into "a logistics nightmare."3

On 7 October 2001, the US and the UK begin bombing operations, less than one month after the 9/11 attacks. Because of this short time interval, insufficient post-combat planning was performed.

Historical Context of the Iraq War

Prior to the start of the Afghanistan War, the US had little interaction with Afghanistan beyond support of the Mujahideen during the Soviet Occupation. In contrast, there was considerable history between the US and Iraq: the Gulf War.

While the Gulf War saw the eviction of Iraqi forces from Kuwait, Saddam Hussein remained in power. When George W. Bush became president, he brought along policy experts who believed that leaving Saddam in power was a mistake. This was the first reason that war with Iraq was seen as inevitable.

The second reason that war seemed inevitable was the Bush Administration's overall policy in response to 9/11. Bush not only declared war against Afghanistan, but he also declared a Global War on Terror (GWOT). Few people at the time wondered just how it was possible to declare war on a tactic (terrorism).

The connection between Iraq and the GWOT was tenuous: Saddam was not known to harbor terrorists, nor was he a sponsor of terrorism (or at least international terrorists). What tipped the scale was Saddam's unwillingness to allow UN Weapons Inspectors to examine certain weapon facilities. This led to suspicions that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the means to deliver said WMD, and that he had used WMD against the Iraqi Kurds. The political objectives of the US-led forces were to eliminate Saddam and the Ba'athist regime, locate and destroy the WMDs and the facilities to manufacture them, as well as to protect the Kurds.

Just like in Afghanistan, there was little post-combat planning, but the difference was that Iraq shared a 994-mile-long border with a hostile enemy: Iran.

Joining a Multinational Operation

The countries involved in multinational operations share a common desired political outcome from the military operations, that much is clear. Assembling a coalition is thus an act of diplomacy, and the decision for a country to become a partner nation (PN) in a multinational task force (MNTF) depends on the purpose of the MNTF, the lead nation, as well as domestic concerns.

There are numerous domestic concerns a potential PN must consider: domestic politics, national interest, the defense budget, and threats from other nations that may seek to use the diversion of the PN's military to the MNTF to their advantage4.

Once the PN decides to join, there is the question of the range of support (the type and level of commitment) the PN would provide to the MNTF. According to JP 3-16, the range of support is a spectrum5. On one end of this spectrum is combat support in the form of troops, aircraft, ships, equipment, etc. At the other end there are commitments that do not require troops or equipment, such as financial assistance, overflight and basing rights, and use of existing facilities. In the middle, noncombatant forces can be committed to provide forms of support such as logistics, infrastructure, air and sea lift, intra-theater lift, etc.

There is also the question of when the PN's forces engage: combat, post-combat, or both. During the Iraq war, several nations agreed to become involved only after combat operations ended, at which point humanitarian assistance and reconstruction came to the fore.6

How the Iraq War Differed from the Afghanistan War

There were two differences between the Iraq War and Afghanistan War that were of importance to potential PNs. First, there was the fresh and raw memory of the 9/11 attacks and the very real possibility that Al Qaeda would attack them (whether they became a PN or not). Second was the differing expected post-combat outcomes.

With the shock of the 9/11 attacks, not much consideration was given to how Afghanistan would look after the completion of military operations. The elimination of Al Qaida was seen as doable, and preventing the return of the Taliban was an important goal, but what form would the new Afghan government take? America promised a representative democracy, but Afghanistan is composed of a number of ethnic and tribal groups and would require a strong central government in order to keep them those groups at peace. The inherent contradiction was lost on the military planners. Add to this was the fact that the Taliban were primarily Pashtun, which were 40% of the population. If the Pashtun were excluded, then the new Afghan government wouldn't be representative; if they were included then a strong central government would be needed to keep them from taking control, so the new Afghan government wouldn't be democratic. The participants in Operation Enduring Freedom would have to prop-up the new Afghan government instead.

In comparison, the reasons for invading Iraq were suspect from the start: there was no evidence for the existence of Saddam's WMDs7. Further, the Bush Administration provided a plethora of reasons for going into Iraq, and if WMDs turned out to be a wash, the US could always fall back on Saddam's history of human rights violations.

Further, the goal of eliminating the Ba'athist government did not come with a plan to replace it. The need for a replacement was immediately obvious due to the presence of Iran: if no de-Ba'athized government was formed, Iraq would invade, and so an extended foreign presence would be required. The realpolitik Pottery Barn Rule would apply: "If you break it, you bought it."

So, both wars would require an extended presence in both countries, but the problems for post-combat Iraq were much more obvious.

Building a multinational force was considerably more difficult for Iraq than for Afghanistan for all these reasons8. In addition, the US was unable to get UN agreement on invading Iraq. To compensate for all this, the Bush Administration had to get... creative.

Getting to ‘Yes’: Persuading Potential PNs to Join MNF-I

For whatever reason, the primary metric that the Bush Administration used for determining the robustness of the Multi-National Force - Iraq (MNF-I) was the number of partner nations. This quickly led to issues.

The Bush Administration initially released only the number of PNs, not the names of the PNs. When the list of names was released9, several problems became clear: first, several listed countries (the Solomon Islands, Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands) not only lacked name recognition, they also lacked standing armies. Second, two of the counties on the list (Eritrea and Ethiopia) had recently completed a major war against each other (the Badme War, 6 May 1998 - 18 June 2000). Third, at least one country on the list (Costa Rica, also a nation without a standing army) denied agreeing to be a PN.

To pad these numbers, the State Department claimed that 15 nations were "covert" PNs. The existence of at least one covert nation (Canada) was proven in the WikiLeaks US diplomatic cable leak10.

The Bush Administration also used financial pressure to grow the number of PNs. Several of the countries were already receiving US aid. Georgia was believed to have become a PN and commit 2,000 soldiers to Iraq as repayment for American training of Georgian forces that could be used to stabilize break-away regions. In 2003, Turkey was offered $8.5 billion in loans for sending 10,000 troops. They refused the loans but did allow medical airlifts into and out of the country.

Thus the Coalition of the Willing came into being.

Conclusion

Prior to the Iraq War, participation of states in a multinational operation depended on domestic consent, decisions about the range of support, as well as decisions about the stage of the operation (conflict-phase, post-conflict, or both). The Bush Administration added two additional factors: whether to participate publicly, and the amount of quid pro quo necessary.

Regardless, the MNF-I was established. As combat operations concluded, the existence of WMD came into serious doubt and the Iraq War became more and more a quagmire, PNs began leaving the Coalition of the Willing.

Footnotes

  1. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Publication 3-16, Multinational Operations, II-1 to II-19.
  2. Howard, C. “To Baghdad and Beyond: ARSOF in Operation Iraqi Freedom.”
  3. Snow, D. & Drew, D. From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond.
  4. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Publication 3-16, Multinational Operations. III-1 to III-4
  5. Ibid. III-3 to III-5.
  6. Rayburn, J. & Sobchak, F. The U.S. Army in the Iraq War – Volume 1
  7. Younge, G., Norton-Taylor, R. & Wintour, P. “Blix attacks ‘shaky’ intelligence on weapons.”
  8. NATO, “NATO and Afghanistan.”
  9. Schifferes, S. “US names ‘coalition of the willing’”.
  10. Weston, G. “Canada offered to aid Iraq invasion: WikiLeaks”

Bibliography

Howard, C. “To Baghdad and Beyond: ARSOF in Operation Iraqi Freedom.” USASOC History Office, 20 March 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2024 from https://www.army.mil/article/264978/to_baghdad_and_beyond_arsof_in_operation_iraqi_freedom

Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Publication 3-16, Multinational Operations, 12 February 2021.

NATO. “NATO and Afghanistan.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 31 August 2022. Retrieved 9 June 2024 from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_8189.htm

Rayburn, J. & Sobchak, F. The U.S. Army in the Iraq War – Volume 1: Invasion – Insurgency – Civil War, 2003-2006. USAWC Press, 17 January 2019. Retrieved 9 June 2024 from https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1385&context=monographs

Schifferes, S. “US names ‘coalition of the willing’” BBC News, 18 March 2003. Retrieved 9 June 2024 from https://web.archive.org/web/20080226195556/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2862343.stm

Snow, D. & Drew, D. From Lexington to Baghdad and Beyond: War and Politics in the American Experience. Routledge, 2009.

Younge, G., Norton-Taylor, R. & Wintour, P. “Blix attacks ‘shaky’ intelligence on weapons.” The Guardian, 23 April 2003. Retrieved 10 June 2024 from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/apr/23/iraq.iraq

Sunday, June 9, 2024

A Review of Rodrigue’s Geography of Transport Systems

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether The Geography of Transport Systems by Jean-Paul Rodrigue (Rodrigue, 2020) is suitable either as a textbook or as a training resource. This is review of limited to the 5th edition of the text, but it is expected that the evaluation will be applicable to the 6th (current) edition.

The text is examined on a per-chapter basis with particular attention on whether there is conceptual development between these chapters. The depth of coverage of major topics is evaluated, even if those topics cross multiple chapters.

Next, four serious criticisms are made of the text: its narrative quality, the lack of quantitative methods, its adherence to the “happy path,” and its treatment of transport networks as public goods. Each of these criticisms will be justified by a chapter-by-chapter summary of the text.

Finally, the text is evaluated for its usefulness as a textbook, a training resource, and also as a reference work. Because of the four criticisms listed above, it is found not to be suitable for any of those purposes.

Introduction

Jean-Paul Rodrigue’s The Geography of Transport Systems is a sprawling overview of the field of Transport Geography. It contains abstract definitions of transportation and distance, and it includes an explanation of the various modes of transportation (either for passengers or freight). The function of transport terminals is explained, and the operating costs associated with terminals as well as various transportation modes are described. In addition, several “soft” issues are discussed such as global warming, environmental impact, etc.

The text suffers from several major flaws, but to isolate those shortcomings it is necessary to examine each chapter individually as well as how the chapters are sequenced. This review begins with a per-chapter overview, and these overviews will be used to describe the shortcomings. The chapter overviews will also provide some examples of the shortcomings as they occur.

Chapter-by-Chapter Summary

The text opens with the introduction of several core terms, including “transportation” which is defined as “the spatial linking of a derived demand as it takes place because of other economic activities for which it is linking its special components as flows of people, goods and information.” (pg. 2). Another core term is “distance” which is relative and is perceived as a function of “the amount of effort needed to overcome it.” Following this, the concept of “logistic distance” is introduced, which describes the tasks needed to move something from place to place. As for the fundamental concept of Euclidean distance, the author describes it as “commonly used to provide an approximation of distance, but rarely has a practical value.” (pg. 5)

The first chapter continues with a very cursory description of the evolution of mechanized transport. Major milestones, such as the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad, are omitted. Chapter 1 next describes how transportation networks underly commercial activities and supply chains. The chapter ends, as do all chapters, with a case study. Unfortunately, the case study is merely a link to the text's accompanying website. All case studies are like that.

Chapter 2 describes transport networks in terms of graph theory. Also discussed is the "digitalization of mobility" which (somehow) includes "cloud services" and "blockchain" - the perfect excuse to pepper key terms for search engine optimization. Another currently hot buzz term, the “Internet of Things”, makes an appearance in the text's concluding chapter. The most important part of Chapter 2 is the description of transportation networks in terms of graph theory. This is completely superficial, and a more comprehensive presentation of graph theory must wait until Chapter 10. It is noted (pg. 64-66) that the networks of different transport modes have co-evolved and are expanding – which repeats the moral of the history section of Chapter 1.

The following chapter, Chapter 3, goes into some depth into the concept of "friction of distance", though this concept was introduced earlier (Chapter 1). Also covered is how transport systems and economic opportunities rise or fall together.

Chapter 4 discusses the environmental impact of transportation systems. This discussion includes global warming, “sustainable environment,” and “environmental responsibility”, which the author assumes is a given. Also taken for granted is “social equity.” Vehicles (EVs and hybrid vehicles are mentioned) are the problem, and a list of methods for controlling transport demand is included on pg. 147.

Chapter 5 explains different transport modes. This chapter is one of the highlights of the text, with its discussion of modal competition (how different means of transportation vie for dominance), modal shifts (how one transport mode can supplant another), and the "last mile problem". These three concepts explain much of the history described in Chapter 1; unfortunately, they are introduced too late in the text.

Chapter 5, even when taken by itself, is not without its faults, however.

There are numerous points in the chapter where “piles” of concepts (ideas not immediately connected but also not organized into hierarchies) are presented. This is demonstrated in Figure 5.1, which is designed to show the main modes for passenger transport, but the inclusion of light rail transit (LRT), high speed rail (HSR), and monorail is a technology-based distinction instead of a mode-based distinction.

A second problem with the chapter is the use of gratuitous illustrations, like for example Figure 5.6. In the background is a map of the Earth in Fuller/Dymaxion projection, but what exactly is this illustration supposed to be showing?

The problems demonstrated by these two examples are by no means limited to Chapter 5, but they ruin what could have been an outstanding chapter.

Transportation terminals are the main topic of Chapter 6, with descriptions of passenger and freight terminals, followed by a discussion of some of the operating costs of terminals. Next, the concept of a transport terminal's "hinterland" is defined: "hinterland" here means the area of influence of a terminal, which (in the context of freight) consists of the geographic area from which outgoing freight is collected, and the geographic area over which incoming freight is distributed. Finally, particular types of terminals (ports, rail terminals, and airports) are described. The very important question of where to locate a terminal is raised, but the necessary techniques to answer that question are not fully addressed here or later.

Chapter 7 is devoted to two topics: how transport networks support supply chains, and the issue of globalization. Like transport networks as a whole, globalization is treated in this text as a "given," in a value-free manner focusing on the regulations of global trade instead of the facts that the businesses involved in globalization are almost never local, and that globalization is often deleterious to local economies – without local economies, transport networks wouldn’t exist.

Urban transportation systems are the topic of Chapter 8. There is limited discussion of how unban transport systems connect to larger-scale transportation networks (that was addressed in Chapter 2), but the bulk of this chapter is devoted to regulation.

Chapter 9 is devoted to transportation planning and policy, but also includes a section devoted to natural and man-made disasters and how they relate to transportation systems. All these topics will be discussed below, but it is worth noting that the three primary security measures implemented by the International Ship and Port Security Code - the use of an Automated Identity System on all ships falling into a certain weight range, each port must undergo a security assessment, and all cargoes destined for the U.S. must be inspected prior to departure – really do nothing for security.

Chapter 10 finally provides a little depth to the graph theory (introduced in Chapter 2) that could be used for analyzing transport networks. The presentation is mostly descriptive, and many important tools are missing, the most useful omitted tools being methods for finding the shortest paths between two nodes in a graph, and for finding the shortest routes that visit all nodes in a graph. Another failing of this chapter is the use of very nonstandard terminology such as “ego network,” “nodal region,” “community,” etc. (pg. 362-363)

The text’s concluding chapter again discusses the “digitalization of transportation” (a repeat of Chapter 2), governance and management (treated in numerous locations), and social and environmental responsibility (a repeat of Chapter 4). None of these topics are expanded upon.

Evaluation

The text, while providing exhaustive coverage of certain topics in transport geography, falls short in four major areas: narrative quality, quantitative analysis, adherence to the “happy path,” and finally the coverage of regulations.

Critique 1: Narrative Quality

The text is a series of short vignettes, here called “concepts,” some written by Rodrigue alone, others written by him in collaboration with other authors. These vignettes are then collected into chapters. The result is as expected – disjointed narration, repetition of concepts, and a lack of significant development. For example, "digitalization of mobility" is treated both in Chapter 2 and in the Conclusion Chapter, but neither chapter significantly expands on the other.

Critique 2: Lack of Quantitative Methods

There is almost no coverage of quantitative aspects of transport networks. The general framework needed for such quantitative analysis (graph theory) is postponed until the penultimate chapter.

A related failure is that the discussion and associated figures give the appearance of quantitative knowledge when there is only qualitative knowledge, for example the explanation of elasticity of demand given in Chapter 3.

It is unreasonable to expect the general reader to have a complete mastery of graph theory or scheduling theory or any of the other relevant techniques needed to convert the purely qualitative information provided in this text into something quantitative. However, the supposed difficulty of those techniques is an absolute myth: techniques that are extremely useful to transport geography are within easy grasp at the freshman undergraduate level, as demonstrated by (Tannenbaum, 2012).

Any person possessing only the qualitative knowledge presented here would wither in any meeting, boardroom, or other context where there is someone present with even a modicum of quantitative understanding. By excluding this knowledge, the author is doing a disservice to the reader.

Critique 3: Adherence to the "Happy Path"

The coverage of transport network operation in this text suffers from an almost complete fixation on the “happy path” – the assumption that everything goes according to plan and will continue going as planned in perpetuity.

Several transportation closures due to natural disasters are briefly discussed (2011 Thailand Floods, Hurricane Sandy, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and the 2010 Island volcano eruption, all on pg. 348). The effects of the 9/11 attacks were briefly described, along with the rise of piracy (pg. 350). Two airplane crashes are discussed (both also on pg. 350) and this discussion concludes with a description of the regulatory changes prompted by those disasters.

The coverage of all these disasters is not sufficiently detailed to learn how transport networks responded to these disasters. Further, events that cannot properly be called disasters but still diminish a network’s functionality are almost given zero coverage. The “teachability” lost is considerable.

An example of a “less than disaster” situations is the 2021 Suez Canal Obstruction by the Ever Given (Braw, 2021). This occurred (as well as the 2023 grounding of the MV Xin Hai Tong 23 (Maher, 2023)) after the publication of the text, but that canal has been closed multiple times since its opening in 1869. Each of those closures are lessons in ways the “happy path” can be abandoned (nationalization of the canal, war, blocking ship, etc.), and how redundancies and alternative transport networks transform to resolve problems. Further, the duration of closures – the shortest lasting only a few hours, the longest lasting 8 years in response to the Six Day War – is quite variable and demonstrate how transportation networks adapt and overcome depending on expected times of delay.

The basis for understanding many deviations from the happy path - articulation points and bridges in graph theory – receive only one paragraph on Chapter 10 (pg. 364). The author mentions that bridges and articulation points are points of failure, but that is all. Missing is the idea that different points of failure cause different severities of failure – for example, the collapse of a bridge at the Port of Baltimore is more severe than the breaking-loose of 26 barges on the Ohio River. The “value” of a point of failure is of crucial importance to security experts (who ask how much should be invested in protecting that point of failure) as well as to military planners (how worthwhile is it to cause that point to fail), but this value is not even considered.

Critique 4: Coverage of Regulations

Coverage of the regulation of transport networks in this text is presented in an ahistorical and value-neutral manner. This follows from the author’s apparent assumption that transport networks are public goods, as opposed to privately funded or taxpayer-funded networks with lifespans determined by market forces. No mention is made of the impropriety of imposing such regulations as well as the existence of regulatory failures.

A recent example of regulatory failure in transport geography involves the creation of a network of electric vehicle charging stations (Osaka, 2024). Under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, $7.5 billion was allocated to the construction of 500,000 EV chargers, but only seven or eight charging stations have been constructed as of June 2024. This debacle is, of course, occurring after the publication of the text, but it is easy to find earlier and ongoing regulatory failures, such as how the 1920 Jones Act makes the costs of goods in Alaska and Hawaii much more expensive than they could be.

The author believes that government operation

provides a level of confidence that an activity, such as a terminal or logistics zone, is effectively managed. This can involve daily operations as well as the planning, design and funding of new infrastructure. Effective governance is linked with consistent and reliable services, as well as a good level of responsiveness and feedback when an unexpected issue arises. (pg. 337).

The apparent level of ignorance of government incompetency, government corruption, and regulatory failure is shocking. This quote essentially states that all is good as long as the trains run on time.

If there is any question about the author’s assumption that transport networks are public goods, that doubt should be dispelled by the coverage of congestion as well as the following sentence from pg. 335: "Car ownership is beyond the ability of the transport planner to control directly and the question remains if this should be the case."

Slowly the author began to hate car owners.

The result of all of this is to completely undermine trust in the author’s objectivity as well as the objectivity of the text.

Conclusion

There is little that can be recommended about Rodrigue’s text. It may be useful as a reference for the nomenclature of the transport geography field, but this must be tempered by the quality of the definitions as demonstrated in the above overviews of Chapters 1 and 10.

The text is disjointed and sprawling, with concepts repeatedly introduced with no development or refinement. Concepts are presented out of order, the two most egregious examples being how modal competition and shifts are discussed long after the coverage of the history of mechanized transport, and how graph theory is primarily saved for the next-to-last chapter. The overall effect is to sacrifice quality for quantity.

The strict adherence to the “happy path” and the fact that quantitative analysis is never really explored severely limit the applicability of the knowledge presented in this text.

Finally, there is the assumption that transport networks should be treated as public goods. With this assumption, the title of the text really should not be The Geography of Transport Systems, but rather The Regulation of Transport Systems.

There is a supplemental website for this text (Rodrigue, 2020) which is referenced in each chapter’s Case Study (except for Chapter 1’s Case Study, which references the website for another of the author’s texts (Notteboom, Pallis & Rodrigue, 2022). The website includes PDF slides for each chapter, and a password is required to download these slides.

The slides are geared for the 6th edition of the text, and only the PDF for Chapter 10 was evaluated. The 5th edition’s Chapter 10 has been moved into an appendix, and there is no PDF for that appendix. A quick review the downloaded PDF shows that the slides do not compensate for the above-listed defects in the text.

The website has no links for downloading example quizzes and exams, and if there ever were slides for the 5th edition, they have been removed.

Because of the four critiques explained above, plus the lack of educator resources, Rodrigue’s The Geography of Transport Systems cannot be recommended as a textbook for either undergraduate or graduate classes in transport geography.

The PDF slides may be useful for training purposes, but significant explanation must be added by the trainer to make them comprehensible.

References

Braw, E. (10 November 2021). “What the Ever Given Taught the World.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved 8 June 2024 from https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/10/what-the-ever-given-taught-the-world/

Maher, H. et. al. (25 May 2023). “Suez traffic returns to normal after ship briefly stranded.” Reuters. Retrieved 8 June 2024 from https://www.reuters.com/world/ship-grounded-egypts-suez-canal-refloat-attempts-ongoing-leth-shipping-agencies-2023-05-25/

Notteboom, T., Pallis, A. & Rodrigue, J-P. (2022). Port Economics, Management and Policy. Routledge. https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/

Osaka, S. (29 March 2024). “Biden’s $7.5 billion investment in EV charging has only produced 7 stations in two years.” Washington Post. Retrieved 8 June 2024 from https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/03/28/ev-charging-stations-slow-rollout/

Rodrigue, J-P. (2020). The Geography of Transport Systems (5th ed.). Routledge. https://transportgeography.org/

Tannenbaum, P. (2012). Excursions in Modern Mathematics (8th ed.). Pearson Press.